Data en Rochester

Syracuse: The Salt City

2008.10.02 21:54 Syracuse: The Salt City

/Syracuse is a place to find, share, rate and rank local news, videos, photos and more, around Syracuse and Central New York. Show others what they may be missing in CNY, and be respectful of everyone in our community.
[link]


2011.07.18 22:27 Groggie Explained by .gif

[/Syracuse](/Syracuse) is a place to find, share, rate and rank local news, videos, photos and more for Syracuse and Central New York.
[link]


2020.10.21 12:03 remote-enthusiast 59 remote jobs

Hello friends! These are the open remote positions I've found that were published today. See you tomorrow! Bleep blop 🤖
submitted by remote-enthusiast to remotedaily [link] [comments]


2020.09.02 12:03 remote-enthusiast Collection of 75 remote jobs published in last 24h

Hello friends! These are the open remote positions I've found that were published today. See you tomorrow! Bleep blop 🤖
submitted by remote-enthusiast to remotedaily [link] [comments]


2020.08.16 16:30 VODThread [SGDQ] VoD Thread 2020

Schedule may change without notice. Please check gamesdonequick.com/schedule for the most up-to-date reference.
Don't gild the thread, donate the money instead ^_^
The thread is generated from data provided by GamesDoneQuick, Speedrun.com, and the contributors to the vod list
With thanks to the contributors that keep the thread running

Links

Game Runner / Channel Time / Link
Pre-Show (Jokes) JHobz, Keizaron, Kungfufruitcup, Sent, SpikeVegeta, YellowKillerBee 0:25:00 YT
Demon's Souls+ BertoPlease 0:51:42 YT
Streets of Rage 4 (Arcade Mania - Blaze)+ Mike Uyama 0:53:19 [2] YT
Rayman Legends+ DepressingChild 1:30:24 YT
ICO (Any% PS2 PAL)+ Beuchi 1:13:12 YT
Shovel Knight: King of Cards davidtki 0:31:36 YT
Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 2x (All Goals and Golds (All Career))+ ThePackle 0:32:08 YT
DUSK (Any% Out of Bounds)+ B.G.B. 0:18:18 YT
Metal Gear Solid (Any% Extreme)+ plywood 1:00:01 YT
Secret of Mana (Any% 1 player 1 controller)+ Crow! 2:49:52 YT
Millennium Racer (Amateur Championship)+ Fireman 0:39:54 YT
Amnesia: The Dark Descent (Any% (Quit-Outs Allowed))+ bloodthunder 0:30:22 YT
Silhouette Mirage (Any% JP)+ kariohki 0:43:04 YT
Keio Flying Squadron 2 (Beat the Game)+ Mee 0:35:04 YT
Kirby & The Amazing Mirror (100%)+ swordsmankirby 1:12:03 YT
Jimmy Neutron vs. Jimmy Negatron culinwino 0:13:36 YT
Rabi-Ribi ((Casual) 10 Town Members.)+ IIvgmII 0:28:18 YT
Adventures of Lolo 2+ rayeo 0:28:47 YT
New Ghostbusters II+ MadMegaX381 0:21:25 YT
Gravity Trooper - Metal Storm (No Wrong Warp) MadMegaX381 0:13:04 YT
Chicken of the Farm (100%)+ Xarnax42 0:09:35 YT
Micro Mages+ WhiteHat94 0:19:41 YT
Legacy of the Wizard+ Dragondarch 0:21:11 YT
Kid Icarus+ fruitbatsalad 0:21:58 YT
Power Blade (Any% Expert)+ NeoKad 0:16:11 YT
Zelda II: The Adventure of Link (Reverse Boss Order)+ EnchantressOfNumbers 0:50:59 YT
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion (No Out of Bounds)+ sandyX 0:36:44 YT
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt (Any% Old Patch)+ Kaadzik 2:09:42 YT
Batman: Arkham City (Any% (Easy))+ ShikenNuggets 1:07:31 YT
Valley+ TheRedSock 0:15:10 YT
Dandara: Trials of Fear PoleCat 0:32:19 YT
Portal (Glitchless)+ Shizzal 0:16:07 YT
Portal 2 (All Main Courses)+ AJ_from_portal, betsruner 0:33:28 YT
The Talos Principle (All Sigils)+ Azorae 0:47:39 YT
Superliminal (Any% Warpless)+ Crisper 0:18:25 YT
Hollow Knight (Any% No Major Glitches race)+ Pestilentbox2, fireb0rn 0:42:12 YT
Bonus Game 1 - Ori and the Will of the Wisps (Any% Easy, No Out of Bounds) sickynar 0:35:50 YT
Gunvolt Chronicles: Luminous Avenger iX+ Benja 0:34:17 YT
Yono and the Celestial Elephants (No Major Skips)+ Bullets 0:15:34 YT
Alien: Isolation (All Missions, Nightmare, No CC)+ Drayux 2:39:09 YT
Silent Hill: Homecoming (All Bosses NG+)+ shmumbler 0:59:00 YT
Alone in the Dark+ PlasticRainbow 0:09:57 YT
Quest 64 (US Any%)+ Bingchang 1:44:56 YT
The Lion King (Any% Difficult)+ eight 0:16:50 YT
Castle of Illusion Starring Mickey Mouse (Any% Normal)+ Paulsaltine 0:18:23 YT
Pulseman (Glitchless)+ d4gr0n 0:38:06 YT
Super Turrican (Hard)+ d4gr0n 0:10:08 YT
Donkey Kong Country 2 (Warpless)+ Tonkotsu 0:51:28 YT
Demon's Crest (100%)+ Z4T0X 0:45:34 YT
Castlevania II: Belmont's Revenge+ Tinnue 0:29:01 YT
Bloodstained: Curse of the Moon (Low%)+ Starwin 0:41:08 YT
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night (Zangetsu Any% (NMG))+ The Blacktastic 0:22:53 YT
Jet Set Radio+ kitcarsonn 0:37:08 YT
Disney's Extreme Skate Adventure+ Helix 0:15:47 YT
Tony Hawk's Underground (Any% Beginner)+ Biglaw 0:36:26 YT
Trackmania Nations Forever (All Tracks (No E05))+ Wirtual 1:06:52 YT
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess HD+ gymnast86 3:22:06 YT
Bonus Game 2 - Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (48 Tracks Relay) Amber, Pianist15, jacob 1:25:57 YT
Splatoon (NG+)+ Kingj0444 0:57:11 YT
Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal (NG+ No Quit Exploit)+ Xem 0:30:16 YT
DeadCore (No Major Glitches: Speedrun%)+ imawakka 0:30:02 YT
Darksiders Genesis+ Sunnymuffin 0:59:07 YT
BioShock Infinite (Any% (HRH-Mod))+ bloodthunder 1:47:09 YT
Gunman Clive (Clive - Easy)+ FCRacer 0:15:14 YT
Dogurai (Bones - Any%)+ FelinoAlbino 0:25:08 YT
EAT GIRL+ touhoe 0:09:51 YT
Kemono Heroes (Beat the Game (Hard Difficulty))+ GreenZSaber 0:32:13 YT
Kousoku Kaitenzushi (All Stages)+ Cisco147 0:06:04 YT
Metal Gear: Ghost Babel (Very Hard)+ plywood 1:19:53 YT
Neon Boost (Any%- Lights on, 1.2)+ kykystas 0:09:20 YT
One Step From Eden (Neutral Selicy Seedless Normal)+ Risch 0:15:54 YT
Virtual Boy Wario Land (100%)+ swordsmankirby 0:23:29 YT
Mario & Luigi: Paper Jam+ GigaDB 0:57:19 YT
The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (Warpless)+ mghtymth 0:52:22 YT
The Last of Us (Grounded mode, Glitchless, New Game)+ AnthonyCaliber 2:53:43 YT
Freedom Planet (Carol Any% (Classic Mode))+ Revolucion 0:44:55 YT
Sonic the Hedgehog (Beat The Game Glitchless)+ t0uchan 0:23:12 YT
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (Sonic - Beat the game)+ Joeybaby69 0:24:14 YT
Sonic 3 & Knuckles (All Emeralds (Sonic))+ TheSoundDefense 1:03:49 YT
Sonic Heroes (Team Sonic vs Team Chaotix)+ CriticalCyd 0:47:43 YT
Bonus Game 3 - Resident Evil 3: Remake (2020) (New Game Standard) MikeWave 0:52:55 YT
Devil May Cry 4: Special Edition (NG Nero/Dante Devil Hunter)+ Mekarazium 1:15:38 YT
Pacify (2 Player 100%)+ Metro72, YourAverageWhiteChick 0:04:46 YT
Night Trap (Best Ending)+ Ecdycis 0:29:01 YT
Pringles: The Video Game (All As) SecksWrecks 0:03:45 YT
Hypnospace Outlaw (Any% (All Cases))+ Lizstar 0:18:33 YT
Saint Hazel's Horsepital+ Bullets 0:22:22 YT
Ribbit King (All Courses)+ Dakitteh 0:18:58 YT
Streets of Fury EX (Any% - Ruby Diamonds)+ SCXCR 0:23:11 YT
Rocko's Quest+ NoseJones 0:15:39
Homey D. Clown corndan 0:09:51 YT
Little Big Adventure 2+ janglestorm 0:29:18 YT
ALF+ Starbird 0:06:24 YT
El Matador+ catalystz 0:17:25 YT
Asghan: The Dragon Slayer+ havrd 0:32:34 YT
Baldur's Gate: Enhanced Edition (Legacy of Bhaal% (current patch))+ SeriouslySurly 0:24:53 YT
The Simpsons Arcade Game (Any% Normal (JP))+ LRock617 0:20:33 YT
Billy Hatcher and the Giant Egg+ Kyrrone 1:08:58 YT
DOOM 64 (2020) (Be Gentle Speed)+ ZELLLOOO 0:37:37 YT
DOOM 64 (2020) - Lost Levels (Be Gentle Speed) ZELLLOOO 0:12:12 YT
Star Wars: Jedi Knight - Dark Forces II Alnak 0:32:23 YT
Blood (Any% One Unit Whole (No Episode Warp))+ Psych0sis 0:20:21 YT
Doom 3+ ripchip_ 1:08:30 YT
Warframe (Boss showcase)+ KrusKader 0:20:49 YT
Mega Man 9 (Any% Race)+ HJA, Slurpeeninja 0:34:24 YT
Yakuza Kiwami 2+ Froob 1:52:52 YT
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time (Randomizer Co-op)+ Raikaru, WoodenBarrel 3:01:47 YT
Bonus Game 4 - Half-Life: Alyx (Any% No Spin) Buffet Time 0:31:16 YT
DOOM Eternal (Any% No Major Glitches (Nightmare Difficulty))+ BloodShot9001 1:30:55 YT
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2+ Klooger 1:27:06 YT
We Happy Few (We All Fall Down)+ DemonicRobots 0:24:55 YT
Miami Vice+ KZ_FREW 0:24:10 YT
Valdis Story: Abyssal City+ RiskyCB 0:25:44 YT
Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic+ ChaosDrifter 0:43:12 YT
Elevator Action Returns (1CC)+ The Opponent 0:17:02 YT
Terminator: SkyNET+ tbcr 0:17:56 YT
Hello Neighbor (PC Any%)+ smythe 0:15:47 YT
Quest for Glory I: So You Want To Be A Hero (100% Route Bid War)+ davidtki 0:25:20 YT
Contra ReBirth (Normal)+ WhiteHat94 0:13:56 YT
Puzzle Bobble 2 (Puzzle)+ poshi 0:13:00 YT
A Short Hike (All Gold Feathers (No S+Q))+ warm_ham 0:10:06 YT
Baba Is You (True Ending)+ Punchy 0:22:39 YT
Sly Cooper and the Thievius Raccoonus+ Zenthrow 0:46:43 YT
Kingdom Hearts II Final Mix (Lvl 1 Data Organization RTA)+ CrispyMe 0:21:26 YT
Super Hark Bros (100% Race)+ SuperBen, UghRochester, papanug 0:23:07 YT
Mario vs. Donkey Kong (Any%+)+ ViolinGamer 1:15:33 YT
Super Monkey Ball 2 (Story Mode All Levels)+ PetresInc 0:30:32 YT
Super Mario Bros. (Warpless Race)+ GTAce99, Kosmic, SuperSonic71087 0:21:05 YT
Super Mario Bros.: The Lost Levels (Warpless D-4 (Mario))+ GTAce99, Kosmic, Picante, SuperSonic71087 0:43:08 YT
Horizon Zero Dawn (TFW NG+ Ultra Hard)+ Elkjaer 0:44:22 YT
Metroid Fusion (1% hard race)+ CScottyW, HerculesBenchpress 1:29:02 YT
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (All Dog Treasures)+ Limcube 1:28:15 YT
Pokémon FireRed/LeafGreen (Any% Glitchless Race)+ JP_Xinnam, PulseEffect 2:26:18 YT
Crypt of the NecroDancer: AMPLIFIED (Coda All Zones) SpootyBiscuit 0:14:53 YT
Bonus Game 5 - Pump It Up! (Showcase) happyf333tz 1:03:31 YT
Final Fantasy VII Remake (Any% Normal)+ Boring_Borin 6:06:56 YT
Touhou 09.5 - Shoot the Bullet (All Scenes) pingval 0:57:17 YT
Ketsui: Kizuna Jigoku Tachi (2 Loop (Ura))+ Moglar5k 0:45:10 YT
DoDonPachi Saidaioujou (High Score Showcase) kayar* 0:29:29 YT
Super Metroid (100%)+ ShinyZeni 1:16:48 YT
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (All Missions)+ KZ_FREW 2:19:28 YT
Super Smash Bros. 64 (Break the Target, All Characters Blindfolded) Bubzia 0:08:29 YT
TASBot plays Super Mario 64 Shindou (Any% BLJless by MKDasher, dar gos, Snark, & more) TASBot, dwangoAC, taters 0:07:36 YT
Super Mario Odyssey (World Peace)+ Dangers 1:14:47 YT
Bloodborne (All Bosses)+ Ahady 1:17:15 YT
Bonus Game 6 - Minecraft (Any% Random Seed Glitchless (1.7)) Illumina 0:41:35 YT
Pokémon Shield (Any% (Shield)) eddaket 5:24:33 YT
Finale (The End) Tech Crew 0:10:00 YT
submitted by VODThread to speedrun [link] [comments]


2020.07.30 21:19 ghtuy Stats I Compiled Because I Was Bored: USLC Player Nationalities

Guess who's been Ultra-Instinct levels of bored? Me. Guess who skimmed every club's Wikipedia article, cross-referenced with Transfermarkt, and curated a spreadsheet of player nationalities by club? Also me.
Disclaimer: This post is really, really long. If you don't want to appreciate my hours upon hours of research, spread over a week as I slaved away over a hot keyboard, turn back now.
Methodology: Basically I used the Wiki entries for nationality, which uses FIFA international allegiance, or place of birth for those without a call-up. Derived statistics include the total number of players across the 35 clubs, the total number of clubs that employ players of that nationality, and the total number of different nationalities at each club. I did not include players at 2-teams who are under contract with the MLS parent organization. I did, however, include academy signings. (Correct as of 7/24)
  • The club with the most distinct nationalities is El Paso Locomotive, with 15. They also have the fewest American players, at 5. Their roster includes 5 Americans, 3 Englishmen, 2 Mexicans, and 1 each: Canadian, Jamaican, Brazilian, Irish, Scottish, Cameroonian, Colombian, Spaniard, DR-Congolese, Haitian, Dutch, and Belgian.
  • In the reverse, the least-diverse (in terms of nationality) is LA Galaxy Jr. with just 5 nations represented. 20 Americans, 2 Mexicans, and 1 each Ghanaian, Liberian, and Sierra-Leonean.
  • El Paso, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay each have 12 nations represented by just 1 player in their squad, more than any other teams. These aren't necessarily the only players of their nation in the league, but speaking of which...
  • No less than 37 nations have just one player across all 35 USLC clubs. That means that ~44%, or almost half the nations represented, have just 1 player. The next 37 nations, which range from 2 to 8 players, represent 154 individuals.
The remainder of the post will highlight these 37 players who are either the only players in the USLC from their respective countries, or the only ones who play for that country, due to FIFA eligibility rules. A player could theoretically be eligible to play for 8 different national teams, if: all 4 grandparents, both parents, and the player were all born in different countries, and the player has held residency for 5 years after turning 18 in yet another country. But anyway...
Afghanistan: David Najem (New Mexico Utd.)
  • Originally from New Jersey, Najem only recently debuted for Afghanistan, so far making 3 appearances. He and his brother Adam are eligible through their father. Both David and Adam played in the USLC last season, but with the latter's move to the Polish league, David is the only Afghan international in the league.
Albania: Vangjel Zguro (FC Tulsa)
  • Hailing from the city of Pogradec, Tulsa's left wing-back (?) started at his hometown club, followed by several short stints at other domestic teams. He first moved abroad in 2019 with USL1's Chattanooga Red Wolves; he has yet to debut for his current side, or his national team.
Andorra: Joan Cervós (Colorado Springs Switchbacks)
  • Though I haven't checked exhaustively, I suspect that Colorado Springs' left-back is the first Andorran player for a professional U.S. team. Even if he's not, he's almost certainly the first Andorran goalscorer in professional American soccer. He received his first international call-up in 2018, becoming first-choice and taking part in 16 of 19 games since then for the small Iberian nation.
Austria: Daniel Fischer (Saint Louis FC)
  • The young left-back came up through the youth system of Austrian side SKN St. Polten, he played college ball for Young Harris in Georgia, spending a summer with Cincinnati Dutch Lions in the PDL. At 23 years of age, he's yet to appear for his current club.
Azerbaijan: Rufat Dadaşov (Phoenix Rising)
  • The only current player from the countries in the Caucusus, Dadaşov spent his entire career around the German lower leagues, before moving to Phoenix before this season. He made an impact immediately, netting a hat trick in their first game of the season and assisting one against OCSC. He's also played 24 matches for his country, netting 5 goals (all against red-and-white flags: Qatar, 2 vs Malta, Northern Ireland, and Bahrain).
Belgium: Chiró N'Toko (El Paso Locomotive)
  • Though born in Kinshasa, Zaire, N'Toko holds Belgian citizenship, the only such individual in the USLC. The 32-year-old moved to El Paso for the 2019 season, and has become club captain. Most of his career has been in the Netherlands, with short stints in his home Belgium, England, and Slovenia.
Bermuda: Zeiko Lewis (Charleston Battery)
  • Though not technically an independent country, Bermuda is a full member of FIFA, and Battery forward Zeiko Lewis is the only of that island currently in the USLC. A USL veteran, Lewis played for the Bermuda Hogges, Real Boston Rams, and Energy Drink Jr. before spending the 2018 season in Iceland, returning to the league with Charleston in 2019. A senior international, he has 26 caps and 9 goals to date, including a hat trick against Dutch possession Sint Maarten.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Robert Kristo (North Carolina)
  • Born in Bosnia but raised in St. Louis, Robert Kristo translated a successful collegiate career into spells in the Italian Serie C and the 3. Bundesliga. Joining the artist formerly known as the RailHawks, he's scored 12 in 30 since the start of 2019. He hasn't been called up to the national team to date.
Bulgaria: Vilyan Bijev (Sacramento Republic)
  • The Bulgarian midfielder, raised in California, has had something of a journeyman career. With youth spells at California Odyssey and Liverpool, he spent time on loan in Germany and Norway. He spent time back in Bulgaria, moving to Portland Timbers Jr., but he's spent more time at Republic than any previous team. Eligible through his residence, he's capped at youth levels for both the United States and Bulgaria, but is yet to make a senior appearance for either.
Burundi: Chancel Ndaye (Las Vegas Lights)
  • Born in Bujumbura, the 21-year-old right-sided defender moved to Las Vegas before the start of the season from the Czech Republic. Despite his age, he debuted for his nation at the Under-20 level at 17, and the senior level aged 19. His caps are in the U-20 AFCON, senior CECAFA Cup, and a friendly against Djibouti.
Cabo Verde: Steevan Dos Santos (Pittsburgh Riverhounds)
  • The Cape Verdean striker joined Pittsburgh ahead of the previous season, where he played nearly every game, scoring 10 and assisting 6 as they won their conference. The 30-year-old had a diverse career before coming stateside. Starting off at hometown club CS Mindelese, he spent a spell in Norway with Ull/Kisa before 2 seasons with Angolan side Progresso. He played briefly for Rochester Rhinos and Ottawa Fury, before becoming a key player at his current club.
Congo: Brunallergene Etou (Charlotte Independence)
  • Though born in Brazzaville, defensive midfielder Etou began his career in France, playing for lower-league sides Drancy, Le Havre Reserves, and Mont d'Or before "going pro" with Ligue 2 side Béziers. He joined Charlotte ahead of this season, and made his debut in their opening win against Sporting Kansas City Jr. Aged 26, he has yet to break into his national team.
Côte d'Ivoire: Jean-Christophe Koffi (Memphis 901)
  • The young midfielder hails from Côte d'Ivoire's capital city, Abidjan. After moving to the U.S. in childhood, he spent time in D.C. United's youth setup, before a collegiate career at University of Virginia. He joined Energy Drink Jr. for last season, starting 26 of his 27 appearances, before joining Memphis ahead of this season. He is not capped internationally at any level, but could potentially play for either his birth nation or the U.S.
Curaçao: Ayrton Statie (Reno 1868)
  • Born in the Dutch Caribbean island of Bonaire, the left-back plays internationally for Curaçao. I couldn't specifically find information regarding his eligibility; Bonaire is a municipality of the Netherlands, which is a constituent country in the Kingdom of the Netherlands along with Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. Bonaire has a team, but it isn't a FIFA member. It's confusing. Nonetheless, after playing in the Dutch second division and briefly in Azerbaijan, Reno brought him in for the 2020 season. He has yet to appear for the Nevadan team.
Dominican Republic: Rafael Díaz (Sacramento Republic)
  • Backup goalkeeper for Sacramento Republic, Rafael Díaz has spent his entire career in the lower leagues of American soccer. From the PDL and NPSA, he moved to Energy Drink Jr., playing 21 times in the league across 3 seasons. Since joining Sacramento in 2018, he's played 8 times across all competitions. Uncapped internationally, he's nearly a decade younger than his nation's first two choices, so there's still hope!
French Guiana: Thomas Vancaeyezeele (Pittsburgh Riverhounds)
  • Born in Caen in France, Vancaeyezeele spent his youth career with his hometown club, having short spells at lower-league French and Spanish sides before attending the University of Charleston. He played for the now-defunct Florida Adrenaline, and Mississippi Brilla, before joining Pittsburgh following a trial spell. Internationally, he represents French Guiana, eligible through his grandparents. Though they aren't a FIFA member as a department of France, they participate in CONCACAF competitions, and he's played in the Nations League.
Grenada: Arthur Paterson (Charleston Battery)
  • A Florida native, Paterson played for Wright State in Ohio, he was passed up by NYCFC and landed at Bethlehem Steel, where he played a single match in 2018. At Charleston ever since, he was an important part of their 2019 playoff push at left-back, scoring 4 and assisting 2 in 23 matches across all competitions. Eligible through his father, Paterson has 9 caps for Grenada, with 4 goals in Nations League play. In his last match against Belize, he ran out as captain.
Italy: Daniele Proch (North Carolina)
  • Somehow, Daniele Proch is the only USLC representative from the great footballing nation of Italy. Coming up through academy systems in the north of his home country, he spent time at Serie D side Dro before playing at Catawba and Duke in the U.S. Signing with NCFC ahead of this season, it's his first fully professional contract. The forward debuted in the season opener, coming on as an 87th-minute substitute.
Lesotho: Napo Matsoso (Louisville City)
  • Originally from Maseru, capital of the small southern African enclaved nation, the 26-year-old midfielder attended and played for University of Kentucky in Lexington. Spending a few summers on loan at Derby City Rovers and Reading United, he was a draft pick for New England Revolution, though he never appeared for the senior team. Joining Lou City from Mississippi Brilla in 2018, he's since appeared 29 times in all competitions, scoring 5 in the USLC. For his nation he's played twice, though not since 2017; Lesotho mainly draws from their domestic league and their neighbor, South Africa.
Malawi: Yamikani Chester (Las Vegas Lights)
  • 25-year-old striker Yamikani Chester played for domestic clubs Tigers and Mighty Wanderers, he signed with Czech side Vyskov, immediately taking a loan spell at North Carolina FC for 2019. At the end of that campaign he signed for LV Lights. To date, he's only made one appearance for the Vegas side, an 86th minute sub in a 2-1 loss to San Diego. He has 10 caps for his national side, but he's been limited to qualification tournaments, as Malawi rarely competes outside regional cups.
Mauritius: Ashley Nazira (San Diego Loyal)
  • Starting out at domestic club Boulet Rouge, he led the league in scoring four of his five seasons. He signed with San Diego ahead of their inaugural season, uniquely becoming the first Mauritian professional in American soccer. However, he has yet to appear for Donovan's side, making the squad just once as an unused substitute. He debuted for the island nation in 2015 aged 20, and has appeared in 16 matches with 7 goals since.
Montenegro: Emrah Klimenta (San Diego Loyal)
  • Montenegrin utility defender Emrah Klimenta was born in Yugoslavia, but is eligible for the modern nation as the successor of the former federal state. Having grown up in the United States, he came through the youth systems of Slovakian side Zilina and FC Ingolstadt of Germany. His entire senior career has been in California, except a brief stint at Reno. From the now-defunct NPSL Bay Area Ambassadors, he found success at Sacramento Republic from 2014 to 2017. After a brief spell at LA Galaxy, he moved back to Sac for the rest of 2018, before helping Reno in their playoff push in 2019. After debuting in 2016, he's racked up 7 caps for his nation.
Morocco: Younes Boudadi (Reno 1868)
  • Born in Ypres, Belgium, Boudadi came up through the youth teams of Bruges before moving stateside for the college game. Spending 2 years each at Boston College and Creighton, he spent summers playing with PDL side Boston Bolts, and NPSL team Laredo Heat. Eligible through heritage (I couldn't find a good source), he's represented Morocco at Under-17 and Under-20 youth levels, most prominently in their appearance at the 2013 U-17 World Cup, helping them win their group before exiting in the round of 16.
Niger: Abdoul Kairou Amoustapha (Loudoun United)
  • Aged just 19, the Nigerien forward joined the DC United reserves earlier this year from Niamey club ASN Nigelec. I can barely find any information on this player, but he hasn't made the matchday squad in either of their games this season. He has, however, made appearances for Niger at Under-17, -20, and -23 levels. He was in the squad for their appearance at the 2017 U-17 World Cup in India. He featured as a substitute in a 4-0 group loss to Spain and started a 2-0 loss to Brazil. Advancing on third-place ranking, he was an unused sub in a round of 16 loss to Ghana.
North Macedonia: Xhelil Asani (Pittsburgh Riverhounds)
  • Though just 24 years of age, left-wingback Asani has built a diverse CV of clubs. Brief stints in lower-league Macedonian teams Napredok, Vellazerimi 77, Bylis Barish, and Metalurg Skopje preceded his first move abroad to Maltese top-flight Pembroke Athleta in 2016, and again to Torpedo Bel-AZ Zhodino in Belarus before returning to his home country with Shkendija. As if that weren't enough, he played briefly at Mash'al Mubarak in Uzbekistan, Mladost Doboj Kakanj in Bosnia, and SKA Khabarovsk in the ass-end of Russia before finally joining the Pittsburgh team before this season. He's made the bench 4 times, but has yet to debut. I'm exhausted after writing that.
Palestine: Nazmi Albadawi (North Carolina)
  • Born in Raleigh, he played for North Carolina schools Wake Tech and NC State, spending summers with the RailHawks' U-23 side. He moved up to the senior team in 2014, appearing over 100 times in all competitions before a move to FC Cincinnati ahead of their final USL season. Scoring 11 in 31 from attacking midfield, he stayed with the Ohioans in their MLS expansion, though he was loaned back to NCFC after one MLS appearance. He made his return permanent before this season, and has captained one of his two appearances this season. Eligible for Palestine through his parents, he's played for the west Asian team 9 times, scoring the winner against Pakistan on his debut.
Paraguay: Erik Lopez (Atlanta United Jr.)
  • On loan from his hometown Club Olimpia, the 18-year-old striker joined the Atlanta reserves on loan just earlier this month, and is set for a permanent move in 2021. He has yet to appear for the club, though in 2019 he appeared 16 times for Olimpia, scoring 4 in the league. He's already played for Paraguay at the Under-23 level, featuring in 2 losses during CONMEBOL Olympic qualification.
Philippines: Niko de Vera (Portland Timbers Jr.)
  • Born in Washington state, young left-back Niko de Vera spent time in the Portland Timbers youth setup before playing 60 games over 3 years at University of Akron. Playing with the Timbers' U-23 team in the PDL, after college New York Energy Drink drafted him, and he played for their USL reserve team in 2018. He returned to the Timbers organization ahead of the 2019 season, playing for the 2-team ever since. Eligible through his father, he was called up for World Cup qualification in 2019. However, he has yet to debut, making the bench just once, against China.
Poland: Dariusz Formella (Sacramento Republic)
  • Hailing from Gdynia on Poland's Baltic coast, left-winger Formella made his professional start at his hometown club, Arka Gdynia in the Ekstraklasa, in the 2012/13 season. He was then employed by Polish giants Lech Poznan from 2013-2018, but with several short loan spells back to Arka, Pogon Szczecin, and Rakow Czestochowa, where he earned valuable playing time. The last of these signed him permanently for 2018/19, but he came stateside and joined Sacramento ahead of 2019. He's played 15 times for them so far, including 2 goals against Tacoma the other week. He's progressed through the Polish national youth levels, appearing for the U-16, -17, -18, -19, -20, and -21 teams. He has yet to make his senior debut.
Russia: Valeri Saramutin (Austin Bold)
  • Born in Camden, New Jersey, he's eligible for Russia through his parents. Aged 25, he graduated Dynamo Moscow's youth academy to debut for the senior team, also playing for the reserve team. On Dynamo's books from 2012-2017, he moved to Dynamo St. Petersburg, playing in the Russian second division in 2017/18 before a brief stint with Veles Moscow in the tier below. He's been with the Texan club since their inaugural campaign, playing 30 games in midfield in their playoff push and their Cup run. For Russia, he's appeared at Under-16, -17, -18, and -19 levels.
Rwanda: Abdul Rwatubyaye (Colorado Springs Switchbacks)
  • Sandwiched between Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of he Congo, the small nation Rwanda only has one player in the USLC. Abdul Rwatubyaye, aged 23, started out in the youth system of Armee Patriotique Rwandaise, one of several major clubs in the capital, Kigali. He made his professional debut at crosstown club Isonga, before moving back to A.P.R., and eventually to Rayon Sports for a season. An MLS prospect, he joined Sporting KC early in 2018, making 2 appearances for the senior team and 1 for the reserves before moving to Colorado mid-season. Since joining the Switchbacks, he's played 25 games at center-back, scoring 4 along the way. Internationally, he's played 25 times, becoming a regular since his debut in 2015.
Serbia: Ilija Ilić (Indy Eleven)
  • Born in Belgrade, Yugoslavia in what's now Serbia, Ilić progressed through the youth teams in his hometown, including a brief loan to third-division side FK Sopot. After a collegiate career at Young Harris, with summer spells at PDL side Ocala Stampede, he joined Louisville City in 2015. He quickly became a regular in attack, with 91 appearances in all competitions from 2015-2018, helping them to two consecutive postseason titles. Joining Indiana's capital team ahead of 2019, he hasn't found the same success, playing just 22 times since. He has not yet been capped by Serbia.
St. Kitts and Nevis: Atiba Harris (Oklahoma City Energy)
  • The oldest player on this list, the 35-year-old defender is a veteran of MLS. After brief employment in Spain at the start of his career, he joined Real Salt Lake for the 2006 and 2007 seasons. Staying in MLS, he was an important player for several teams in one or two-year spells. After a second spell with FC Dallas, playing 84 league games between 2015-2017, he spent the first half of 2018 at Mexican third-tier side Murcielagos, before joining OKC midway through the season. He's become a key player ever since, becoming club captain in 2019 and appearing in nearly every game for them since. He also captains his national team, appearing dozens (I keep seeing conflicting figures, but at least 41) times since 2003. Notably, he scored a hat-trick in the nation's joint-best-ever result, 10-0 over Saint Martin in the Nations League.
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: Kyle Edwards (Rio Grande Valley Toros)
  • At just 23 years old, the right-sided midfielder has already had a diverse playing career. Starting out at domestic club System 3 aged 16, he moved abroad to Antigua & Barbudan club Grenades from 2015-2017. Concurrent with his college career at Ranger College and UT-RGV in Texas, he played for PDL teams Houston Dutch Lions and Brazos Valley, before signing with RGV Toros ahead of the 2020 season. He's had just 3 of their 5 games this season, but he is a senior international, debuting in 2014, aged 17. He's earned 15 caps, mostly in friendlies, and has yet to score for his nation.
Tanzania: Ally Hamis Ng'anzi (Loudoun Utd.)
  • Born in Mwanza and raised in Dar es Salaam, the 19-year-old midfielder signed for DC United's reserves ahead of the current season. He began his career at domestic club Singida United, he signed for Czech third-tier Vyskov in 2018. His first move to American soccer was a loan spell at Minnesota United, who in turn loaned him to USL1's Forward Madison for 2019, where he played a handful of matches. He has yet to play for his current club. He's represented his nation at Under-17 and U-20 levels. He's also trained with the U-23 team, though hasn't appeared at that level yet.
Togo: Shalom Dutey (Charlotte Independence)
  • The young left-back is in his first professional contract, after playing college ball with nearby Liberty University. Born to Togolese parents and raised in Charlotte, he spent a spell with USL2 side Charlotte Eagles in the 2019 season. At just 22 years of age, I haven't found much information about him. While he hasn't yet played for his USL team, he's earned several honors in his youth career, including high school All-American, and USL2 Southern Conference Team of the Season.
Turks and Caicos Islands: Billy Forbes (Austin Bold)
  • The 29-year-old Turks and Caicos Islander has spent his entire career in the American lower leagues. Coming through Western Texas College and Lubbock Christian University, he played for PDL Mississippi Brilla for a summer after graduation, before moving to now-defunct WV King's Warriors in West Virginia, also of the PDL. He moved to NASL team San Antonio Scorpions for 2014 and 2015, their last two seasons of existence, before moving to Rayo OKC in 2016. He first came to the USL with San Antonio FC in 2017 and 2019, with a season at Phoenix in between. He signed for Austin ahead of this season, making two substitute appearances so far. He debuted for his nation in 2008, appearing 13 times, 8 as captain.
Phew. I started writing this post a week ago today, and a couple players have joined USL clubs since then, but none with unique nationalities. If there's anything to be learned here, it's that A) a lot of these players are defenders, and specifically left-backs for some reason, and B) I should have broken this up into smaller, more manageable pieces. For my next project I'm doing an overview of football in EU overseas territories. Because why not.
submitted by ghtuy to USLPRO [link] [comments]


2020.05.26 20:44 glittercheese On Sept 30, 2008, 35-year-old wife and mother Kellisue Ackernecht left work to drive home. Hours later, her car was found engulfed in flames just blocks from her house, but Kellisue was nowhere to be found. What happened to Kellisue??

Hello, fellow mystery enthusiasts! I am back with another deep dive - this time, into a bizarre missing person’s case. You may remember a series of posts I made a couple of years ago about the unexplained death of Rebecca Zahau (link to Part One). It’s been a while since I’ve attempted another write up, and I hope you enjoy this one.
I had never heard of Kellisue Ackernecht before I stumbled across her profile on the Charley Project. The more I read, the more intrigued I became. This 35-year-old wife and mother left work one evening and never made it home. Kellisue disappeared without a trace - other than her burning and incinerated car, found just blocks from her home. Maybe this case spoke to me because, like Kellisue, I was born and grew up in small-town central New York, and the background of her disappearance felt so melancholically familiar to me. Maybe it’s the seeming ambivalence of law enforcement, or the thought of her nine-year-old daughter living over half of her life without her mom, or her brother Tom who has been a tireless advocate for his missing sister for over ten years and is quoted in every single article I read about Kellisue. This September will mark 12 years since Kellisue disappeared, and the investigation into her disappearance somehow seems no further along than on the night she was reported missing. What happened to Kellisue?
Background
Kellisue Ackernecht was born Kellisue Kilcullen in 1972 to parents Joyce and James Kilcullen.​ She grew up in Johnstown, NY, in the Capital Region of central New York State, sitting about 50 miles from the state capital of Albany and resting at the foot of the Adirondack Mountains. The area is scenic but slow-moving, dotted with small cities and towns, like Johnstown (pop. 8800), interspersed between long stretches of farmland and forests. Johnstown is in a part of the state known as the Rust Belt - historically known for its booming manufacturing, the region was hit hard by the decline of the industrial sector in the mid-20th century, leading to economic decline, population loss, and urban decay.
Kellisue was raised with one younger brother, John; due to unspecified "family issues", three other brothers grew up in other homes. Kellisue also had two sisters, whom she did not meet until after her mother's passing in 2004, although I am unsure of the exact circumstances of their meeting. In 1997, Kellisue met and fell in love with Jayson Ackernecht, and the couple were married on April 24, 1999. The couple had a little girl together. The family lived in a home with Jayson's parents, at 330 W. Main Street in Johnstown.
Kellisue was known to be friendly and outspoken. She was an active member of the local Fire Department, and Jayson was a volunteer firefighter. Kellisue had previously worked as a teacher's aide and continued to volunteer with the PTA at her daughter's school. She enjoyed crocheting, Grey's Anatomy, the color purple, and chocolate ice cream. Although she was known for her bright, contagious smile, like everyone, she had her own personal struggles. Kellisue reportedly suffered from depression and struggled with low self-esteem throughout her life. Kellisue was prescribed antidepressants for her depression, but she had reportedly stopped taking them at some point prior to her disappearance. Kellisue was close with her brothers, especially Tom Kilcullen, who lived in Syracuse, NY at the time, and Chris Clouston of Connecticut.
At the time of her disappearance on September 30, 2008, Kellisue was working as a shift supervisor at the Rite Aid at Route 30 and Market Streets in Amsterdam, NY (the Rite Aid has since closed, and the building is now an MCT Credit Union). Kellisue’s workplace was about a 12 mile drive from her home in Johnstown. Kellisue had an extremely close relationship with her then-nine-year-old daughter and frequently volunteered at her school. Her husband Jayson was out of work at the time on disability, and the couple was reportedly suffering from marital troubles.
The Disappearance
On the evening of September 30, 2008, Kellisue worked a closing shift at Rite Aid. She punched out at 9:35pm. Kellisue spoke with her coworkers before leaving, promising to meet them at the Amsterdam McDonald's for breakfast in the morning, before they headed to Rite Aid to decorate it for the upcoming Halloween holiday. There is some discrepancy as to the events that followed. Jayson's uncle, Dennis Ackernecht, was quoted as saying that Kellisue and an unnamed coworker drove off in Kellisue's car. A different article notes that Kellisue was last seen merely talking to a coworker, with no mention of the coworker leaving together with Kellisue in her car. Either way, Kelliesue pulled away from the Rite Aid where she worked at 9:45pm that evening, and she was never seen again.
The 12 mile drive home from Rite Aid should have only taken about 15-20 minutes, but Kellisue never arrived home that night. A little over four hours later, at 1:53am, a Johnstown police officer on routine patrol found Kellisue's dark green 1998 Saturn Aura sedan parked in a dead-end parking area in a residential neighborhood of Johnstown known as Frog Hollow. The car was engulfed in flames so intense that the officer had to wait for them to die down in order to open the driver's side door. When he did, neither Kellisue nor any trace of her was found in the car. The fire was so severe that the car was incinerated, from the steering wheel to the seats to the tires. Little remained of Kellisue's car other than the metal frame.
Strangely, Kellisue's car was found only a 30 second drive (two to three blocks) from her home. View a Google Maps view of the route here. Police went to the Ackernecht home and roused a sleeping Jayson to notify him of the fire. Jayson invited the police in to search the home at that time. Jayson later stated in a news interview that he had waited up for Kellisue to return from work until about midnight, at which time he went to bed, only to be awoken by the police coming to notify him of the fire. It seems like Jayson may have reported Kellisue missing at the time of the fire notification, as several news reports note that Kellisue was reported missing at approximately the same time her car was discovered burning, around 2am. I am assuming the police notification happened relatively soon after the 1:53am discovery of the car, since it was less than a half a mile from the Ackernecht home. However, the exact sequence of events during which Kellisue was reported missing are unclear.
The Investigation
According to Johnstown Police Lieutenant Mark Gifford, the Johnstown city K-9 unit assisted in the police search of the area the night Kellisue went missing. "Since then, we increased the search, increased the number of dogs. Yesterday we had the Capital District K-9 training group come to the area and we did a grid search,” Gifford told Spectrum News one week after the disappearance. Current Johnstown Police Chief David Gilbo, who has been the lead detective on Kellisue's case since Day 1, said that many searches were performed. A state police helicopter was even brought in to survey the wooded areas surrounding the Ackernecht home. Police say they followed multiple leads, traveling as far as Syracuse and surrounding areas chasing down tips. Early on in the investigation, police also say they consulted with a psychic, but this turned up no leads.
Lead Detective-turned-Police-Chief Gilbo said that in the course of the investigation, he went as far as contacting the FBI because it was believed an unnamed Alaskan serial killer might have been in the area; however, the time frames did not match up. Gilbo was likely referring to serial killer Israel Keyes, who was known to be in the Northeast in April of 2009 in Tupper Lake, NY, about 120 miles north of Johnstown. Keyes also owned a run-down cabin in Constable, NY, about 180 miles north of Johnstown. Given the relatively short distance, I can understand why police thought Keyes could have been involved in Kellisue's disappearance. However, Keyes' location at the time of Kellisue's disappearance has been traced to the Pacific Northwest. He was known to be in Anchorage, Alaska; Seattle, Washington; and Los Angeles, California in September and October of 2008.
Kellisue's family members augmented the police investigation by raising money, holding vigils, and performing their own searches of the area. In 2009, they enlisted the help of Michigan-based civilian-run volunteer search-and-rescue organization TrackMissing. The family also attempted to recruit help from well-known search-and-rescue organization Texas Equusearch. However, representatives for the organization told Spectrum News in 2009 that they were not able to assist in the search for Kellisue "because of the bad economy and Johnstown Police Department's lack of communication as to where to start searching". However, Police Lt. Mark Gifford refutes this, stating, "Never once has the Equusearch organization contacted me or this police department, to the best of my knowledge. I’m quite certain if they had contacted this police department via the main desk or one of the sergeants, they would have been referred to me.”
Kellisue's car has remained in police custody since the night Kellisue disappeared. Detectives and arson experts from the state Office of Fire Prevention and Control have stated that they cannot determine the cause of the car fire. They are unable to rule out an accidental cause, like a malfunctioning engine part. Police obtained two 1998 Saturns similar to Kellisue's car and set them on fire. Both of the cars burned in a way similar to that of Kellisue's car; both were also completely destroyed, like Kellisue's. Investigators say that there is no evidence of criminal activity with the car, and none whatsoever that someone might have died in the car. Even though the car was completely incinerated, it seems unlikely that the fire would have eliminated all evidence of a human body inside the car at the time of the fire. Kellisue's brother Tom said that the driver's seat of Kellisue's car had been pushed back further than his sister would have positioned it to drive. (Tom's assertion is a bit confusing to me for two reasons. Firstly, the car was said to be utterly destroyed by the fire, so how could it be determined where the driver's side seat was positioned? I am assuming that perhaps the metal components of the seat remained, and that's how the seat position was determined, but I can't confirm that. Secondly, at 5'10" tall, Kellisue was a relatively tall person. How much taller would a person have had to have been in order for the seat to be noticeably moved back from its usual position? Again, this is really only speculative on my part.)
Jayson Ackernecht and the rest of Kellisue's family (including her brother Tom) were interviewed numerous times, the police say. All have been fully cooperative and no-one has ever been named as a suspect in Kellisue's disappearance. The District Attorney in Johnstown has gone so far as to publicly state that Jayson is “definitely not a suspect”.
In fact, from the beginning, police have emphasized that they aren't even sure a crime was committed in relation with Kellisue's disappearance. In a 2010 interview with the Daily-Gazette, then-Police Chief Gregory Horning said, “we don’t have a suspect [in this case] because we don’t have a crime.” If that were to change and it was determined that a crime had been committed, “we will have to revisit who we suspect” Horning also said.
There has been criticism of the Johnstown Police Department’s response to the missing woman. Eleven days after Kellisue's disappearance, local newspaper the Leader-Herald spoke with detective Lt. Mark Gifford. The Leader-Herald asked Gifford if Johnstown police are working with police from Amsterdam, where Kellisue was last seen. "Police often work with other agencies," he responded, not directly answering. When asked if his department will accept an offer to have a state search team come in, Gifford stated, "It's being considered. Right now there's things more pressing ... in this case." These actions have led some critics to question if police have utilized all available resources in Kellisue's disappearance. We know that a State Police helicopter was eventually used to search for Kellisue, but I am unsure of when the helicopter search took place. Given that 11 days after the disappearance, the State Police were not being utilized, some suggest that a delay in searching indicates a failure on the police department's part. The use of a psychic in a police investigation in 2008 is also concerning to some.
There is also the confusion regarding Texas Equusearch. Texas Equusearch representatives told a Spectrum News reporter in 2009 that they were not sending a search-and-rescue team to aid in Kellisue’s disappearance in part because of lack of communication with the police department. The police department refutes this, but I have to wonder what reason TE would have to be dishonest about the matter. On the other hand, if the police department had failed to keep up their end of the communication with TE, they would be highly motivated to keep that information a secret from the local community and Kellisue’s loved ones.
Lt. Gifford has defended the police department’s response, saying, “We have not eliminated any possibility. We're leaving no stone unturned. Every lead that's reported to us or we come across, we exhaust.”
The Aftermath
As the years have passed, little progress has been made in the case of Kellisue's bizarre disappearance.
Family members and loved ones initially held vigils for Kellisue on the yearly anniversary of her disappearance. Approaching the four-year anniversary of Kellisue's disappearance in 2012, local newspaper The Leader-Herald ran a story with details of the disappearance and the upcoming vigil. They also spoke with Kalley Lee, spokesperson for Kellisue's brothers Tom and Chris and creator of the site www.findkellisue.wordpress.com. “We will do them until she is found. We will do a memorial if she is found [dead]. If she is alive, we will stop everything and we will let her move on with her life at that point,” Lee said regarding the yearly vigils and the website. “The police are so quiet and they never offer statements,” Lee also said in the article. “There is virtually nothing new coming up so it is hard to get the media to do stories about her.” True to Lee's word, police declined to comment for the story on the anniversary of Kellisue's disappearance in 2012.
In 2017, police released this statement in regards to Kellisue's disappearance: “After following up on over 340 leads, conducting over 100 interviews and following up on numerous cases of human remains being discovered, the department has not been able to locate Kellisue. The department is asking for the public to contact us with any information that they may have in this case, even if they think we have been notified in the past. The contact can be anonymous, but the department would rather have a phone number or email address in order to ask some followup questions if needed.”
On the ten-year anniversary of Kellisue's disappearance, The Leader-Herald ran a story detailing the disappearance, the investigation, and the current state of the case. It seems that even ten years later, police are still not convinced that there was a crime involved in Kellisue's disappearance. “Right now, I don’t know for sure,” current Police Chief David Gilbo said in the 2018 newspaper article. “I can’t rule it out.”
The Leader-Herald also spoke with Kellisue's brother and long-time advocate, Tom Kilcullen. He expressed his frustrations with police and the lack of progress in the case. “I feel it’s gone through a cold case,” Kilcullen said. Sadly, the article about the ten-year anniversary of Kellisue's disappearance noted that no vigil was planned by family and loved ones.
Theories
The Husband Did It
It is the first theory to spring to most true crime enthusiasts’ minds in cases like these, that hallowed mantra which has proven true time and time again. The husband did it.
But in Kellisue’s case, did he? Let’s take a closer look at the information we have available in this case to see what role Jayson Ackernecht may have played in his wife’s disappearance.
I will start this section by making it clear that Jayson has always denied involvement with Kellisue’s disappearance. However, Kellisue and Jayson’s marriage was apparently not a happy one. One newspaper article even describes the relationship as “allegedly abusive”, and others seem to heavily imply it. If Jayson did have a history of violence against Kellisue - and I will be clear, I am not asserting that as fact - that would increase the odds that he was involved in her death. A woman disappears three blocks from where her abusive husband is supposedly sleeping? I can see why people think that Jayson may have some involvement in her disappearance. It is strange that Kellisue’s car apparently made it to within a 30 second drive of her home after driving home some 10+ miles. We have no real way to know if Kellisue was with her car when it reached that three-block distance from her home.
Jayson stopped speaking with the media shortly after Kellisue’s disappearance, but before he did, he gave a few interviews. Some of his statements raised eyebrows, including a statement made to the local paper the Leader-Herald and included in an article published 11 days after Kellisue’s disappearance indicating that he (Jayson) was on disability and was concerned with less income coming in with his wife missing. Kellisue’s brother Tom as well as others found it odd that this was his concern when speaking about his wife’s disappearance. This was the only statement of Jayson’s that was included in the article from his interview with the Leader-Herald in the week following Kellisue’s disappearance, and the article noted that Jayson and his family had stated they would no longer be speaking with the media. Even if you don’t find Jayson’s statement about financial concerns incriminating, it points to further troubles within the home.
Jayson Ackernecht was also a proud volunteer firefighter with the local fire department, which makes the fact that Kellisue’s car was found on fire especially interesting. There is a tiny but well-known minority of firefighters who commit arson. According to a report published by the National Volunteer Fire Council (NVFC), six motives that have been identified for firefighter arson are: vandalism, excitement, revenge, profit, crime concealment, and extremism. In this case, crime concealment may be the best-fitting motive - if Jayson was the one to set Kellisue’s car on fire. Something violent may have happened in Kellisue’s car, perhaps even her death, and the intense fire was effective at destroying all evidence. NFVC also says that "[m]ost studies have suggested that firefighter arsonists typically start with small ‘nuisance fires’ such as trash or brush. While many escalate to more serious fires, they still often target forests, vehicles, and vacant or abandoned structures." I do not know if Jayson had any history of setting previous fires, but the targeting of a vehicle also fits with the NVFC’s report.
The NVFC report details the profile of the firefighter-arsonist, which can be viewed here. The profile includes several factors that seem to apply to Jayson, including poor marital adjustment, poor occupational adjustment, a fascination with fire/fire service, and unusual stress (family, financial, or legal). Jayson, the currently-disabled and unemployed volunteer firefighter with a rocky marriage, certainly seems to at least loosely fit a portion of the profile. Tom Kilcullen, Kellisue’s brother, has said that he found it “kind of odd” that Jayson wore his volunteer fire department tee shirt while distributing missing posters for Kellisue days after she disappeared. I do not have information on Jayson’s upbringing or his relationship with his parents (other than that Jayson and Kellisue lived with Jayson’s parents), so it’s possible he also meets other parts of the profile.
Jayson drew some ire from online true crime fans on WebSleuths, when, four months after his wife’s disappearance, he had the following posted on his MySpace page in the “About Me” section:
"I am a volunteer firefighter. I would like to find a women between the ages of 28 - 33. I am not into head games I do not want someone that will cheat on me I already had that relationship for 9 years, I want someone who will treat me and my daughter with respect ? I dont want know one night stands or any of that B.S. I am through with people threating me like I am a piece of dirt."
WebSleuths user allastar copied and pasted this quote to the discussion forum on February 3, 2009. I am unable to verify this quote from Jayson’s MySpace, as his MySpace page is now blank.
However, if the quote is accurate, it is troubling for a couple of reasons. Firstly, and startlingly, Jayson seems to suggest that Kellisue was cheating on him (his marriage to Kellisue was nine years old at the time of her disappearance). I did not come across any other mention or accusation of cheating on either side of Jayson and Kellisue’s marriage in my research.
Secondly, many people think it’s odd that Jayson was seeking out a new relationship with his wife missing for just four months. Kellisue has never been confirmed dead, so how does Jayson know that Kellisue isn’t going to return home at any moment? Interestingly, Jayson himself stated that this was his wish, posting to his Facebook page on March 18, 2009 (six weeks after his alleged MySpace profile was posted to WebSleuths):
"I wish I know where to actually to start looking for you again
We have looked all over the Place for U and have not been able to find U here on Heavens Earth where R U MY LOVE"
Following Kellisue’s disappearance, Jayson also had a falling-out with Kellisue’s family. In the Leader-Herald article published 11 days after Kellisue disappeared, Kellisue’s brother Tom noted that "Everybody on his [Jayson's] side of the family is trashing her." Jayson also obtained an order of protection against Tom Kilcullen. Tom says that he has never physically accosted Jayson, but that he assumes the order of protection is because “he thought I held him responsible.” This is confusing to me, because I doubt a judge would approve an order of protection if they did not believe Jayson was in some sort of danger. Something tells me Tom may not have been totally forthcoming with the nature of the interactions between himself and Jayson.
Foul Play by Another Party
Let’s continue with the theory that Kellisue was killed and her car set on fire by her murderer(s). If Jayson Ackernecht himself did not commit these crimes, then who did?
It is possible that Jayson enlisted the help of somebody else to murder his wife. This could explain why police do not consider Jayson a suspect. Perhaps he had an airtight alibi the night that Kellisue disappeared - Jayson has stated in interviews that he went to bed around midnight that night, and was awoken around 2am when the police came to notify him of the car fire a few blocks away. That does not necessarily mean that he was not involved in her murder. Jayson could have recruited the assistance of a family member, friend/acquaintance, or even a stranger to achieve his goal.
But perhaps Jayson Ackernecht truly didn’t have anything to do with Kellisue’s disappearance, as he claims. Shortly after Kellisue disappeared, Jayson stated that he felt his wife was being “held against her will” by someone, although police said they felt this was unlikely. Perhaps Kellisue met up with someone that evening. Could it be the coworker that Kellisue allegedly left work with? I have to assume that police identified and cleared this person relatively quickly, as we have heard nothing else of them. It is possible that Kellisue was cheating on Jayson, as he seems to imply in his MySpace profile, and she was with that person on the night of September 30, 2008. Perhaps things didn’t go quite as planned, and the evening ended up with Kellisue dead, never to be seen again, and her car in flames.
And then again, maybe Kellisue was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time at some point after she left work on September 30. She could have crossed paths with some opportunistic killer. It was not Israel Keyes, but who’s to say he is the only one of his kind out there?
The car fire destroyed any potential evidence of a crime to the point where police seem unconvinced that a crime even occurred. The lack of evidence makes it impossible to rule out any possible perpetrators.
Left to Start a New Life
There is reason to believe that Kellisue may not have been very happy with her life circumstances at the time she disappeared. Her family knew that she was having marital problems. She may have been a victim of domestic violence at the hands of her husband. For some women in this situation, an abrupt escape, without warning to her spouse, may be ideal. Kellisue’s brother Tom mentions to the Daily Gazette that this idea is the “best-case scenario” in Kellisue’s disappearance: that her friend(s) helped her to escape a troubled, potentially abusive marriage. Tom doesn’t think this is the case, though; he can’t imagine that Kellisue would have left without her daughter and without ever contacting anyone again.
That very thing does, however, happen. One such example is Brenda Heist, who disappeared from her home - with dinner defrosting on the counter and the laundry half-done - in the midst of a divorce. Everyone who knew her said she would never have left her two children willingly. However, it was discovered 11 years after her disappearance that she had done just that.
Since I explored the firefighter-arson link previously, I would be remiss to not also mention that this could also possibly apply to Kellisue herself (although she does not fit the firefighter-arsonist profile almost at all). She was said to be active in the local fire department, although in what role I am unsure. Was she a volunteer firefighter, like Jayson? Perhaps, if she left intentionally, she set her own car aflame? But why? To throw her husband and investigators off her trail? A car fire hardly seems the most stealthy way to slip away from a dangerous or unhappy marriage in the night; if anything, this would seem to have brought more immediate attention to Kellisue’s disappearance than if she had simply vanished with no damage to her car.
Suicide
Kellisue had a documented history of depression. Research has consistently shown a strong link between suicide and depression, with 90% of the people who die by suicide having an existing mental illness or substance abuse problem at the time of their death. Not only that, but it is reported that Kellisue had recently stopped taking her antidepressant medication at some point prior to her disappearance. I am unsure if Kellisue was under the care of a physician who was supervising her medication discontinuation, or if she simply decided on her own to stop cold turkey. Antidepressant withdrawal, also known as antidepressant discontinuation syndrome, describes a collection of symptoms that one might experience after discontinuing antidepressant medications abruptly. Onset of withdrawal symptoms is typically within one to two days after stopping the medication, and symptoms can last several weeks. Symptoms include anxiety, insomnia or vivid dreams, headaches, dizziness, tiredness, irritability, flu-like symptoms including achy muscles and chills, nausea, electric shock sensations, also known as “brain zaps”, and the recurrence of depression symptoms. Antidepressant withdrawal may have made Kellisue more susceptible to suicide than she had been previously. Even if Kellisue was being monitored by a physician when she stopped taking her medication, she may have still had some withdrawal symptoms, or a return to a depressed state of mind. Additionally, other stressors in her life, such as financial struggles or relationship problems, may have made her especially vulnerable to any changes in her mental health. Perhaps on the night of September 30, Kellisue set her car on fire to obscure her motivations/actions, and died by suicide in such a way that her body has not yet been discovered.
Accident
Since investigators were unable to determine the cause of the car fire, is it possible that Kellisue was in some sort of car accident that caused the fire? If so, perhaps an injured and disoriented Kellisue could have fled the car, into the nearby woods, and succumbed to either her injuries or the elements, a Patricia Meehan-like situation? The car was destroyed in the fire, and the police have never indicated that there was any damage to the remnants. Would they have been able to tell, given the extensive damage from the fire? It is also possible that the car fire was caused by a faulty engine part. However, such an occurrence would be less likely to cause the disorientation previously described. I don't think these are very likely possibilities, but for the sake of thoroughness I have included them.
What Happened to Kellisue?
When Kellisue was last seen on September 30, 2008, she was leaving the Rite Aid where she worked at Route 30 and Market Street in Amsterdam, NY in her dark green 1998 Saturn Aura sedan with New York license plates. She was wearing a black shirt, tan slacks with a black patch on the back, a Rite Aid apron, new pink and white size 8 sneakers, tan stockings, earrings, two necklaces with three diamonds on each, a watch with a black strap, and a wedding band on her left hand. She was wearing tan glasses and carrying a black purse. Kellisue has brown curly hair with red highlights. She is 5’10” and approximately 135lbs and has a patch on her left cheek. Pictures of Kellisue can be viewed on her Charley Project page.
If you have any information in the disappearance of Kellisue Ackernecht, please contact the Johnstown Police Department in one of these methods:

Will Kellisue’s family ever get closure in her disappearance? At this point, it certainly seems unlikely. So much time has passed and police are still not sure a crime was even committed in her disappearance. But I hope, for her loved ones’ sake, that Kellisue’s case is resolved. I hope that I have done Kellisue justice in my write-up. I have attempted to be both thorough and fair. I am looking forward to your responses to this post and continuing the discussion on Kellisue’s disappearance.
Sources
Edit: formatting & grammar
submitted by glittercheese to UnresolvedMysteries [link] [comments]


2020.05.09 17:24 frankenberrylives eMagin Direct Patterning

BACKGROUND
Kodak is where OLED all started - " In the early 1980s, Kodak invented the OLED technology, and following years of development, licensed the technology to around 20 companies, including LG, CMEL and others."
In 2000 LG Electronics, eMagin Team for Flat Panel Display Development using field emission display (FED) technology.
But then EMAN switched gears from FED to OLED development .
eMagin, formerly FED Corp., initially focused on developing and commercializing FEDs. The company is now focusing on organic light-emitting diode (OLED) microdisplays, using technology licensed from Eastman Kodak Co. (Rochester, NY).
So eMagin cross-licensed OLED technology with Kodak and unveiled the world’s first OLED-on-silicon microdisplay.
Dr Park & LG - In 2007 , Dr. Park will also serve on eMagin's Board of Directors, from which Mr. Jones is departing. He has served as executive vice president of International Operations since 1998 and as president of eMagin's subsidiary, Virtual Vision, Inc., from 2002 to 2004. Earlier, with LG Electronics as an executive vice president and member of the Board, he built up LG's business in LCDs and PDPs, solidifying their world leadership position in flat-panel display products ...
In 2008 , CEO Andrew Scully came to eMagin from Kodak where he had been OLED Division General Manager & Board Member SK Display .
In late 2009 LG bought Kodak's OLED business. Global OLED Technology was formed as the entity to hold the licenses and patents LG acquired from Kodak .
Global OLED Technology sues eMagin for breach of license agreement
2014 Global OLED Technology Settles with eMagin -
Pursuant to the settlement, eMagin agreed to pay GOT a one-time, undisclosed settlement amount. Additionally, the parties have agreed to dismiss the lawsuit and terminate the patent license agreements that were the subject of the dispute. The balance of the terms of the settlement remain confidential.
After the settlement with GOT (LG) , eMagin was unencumbered by any licenses from any OLED players and has their own IP tracing it's lineage back to the original OLED invention at Kodak .
DIRECT PATTERNING
Simply put , OLED currently uses white OLED with color filters to get their RBG . The color filters block about 80% of the light limiting current OLED display brightness to around 500 - 1,000 nits .
Direct Patterning allows side by side production of the sub pixels and color filters are eliminated allowing much brighter and efficient displays . SDE - Screen Door Effect (spaces between subpixels and pixels) is also eliminated .
Currently eMagin has demonstrated over 7,500 nits and is expected to achieve 10,000 nits by 3Q 2020 with 25k nits on the horizon -
Andrew Sculley 4Q 2019 CC:
"Finally, we remain on target to achieve 10,000 nits full color brightness for our direct patterned displays in the third quarter. As we have previously mentioned, the U.S. military has requested 25,000 nits full color brightness. We anticipate reaching this level of brightness within three years and are pursuing funding to help support this effort."
KEY PATENT WITH CO-INVENTOR OF OLED - Ching Wan Tang
Key Patent - Patterning of OLED materials , current Assignees - eMagin Corp & Univ. of Rochester . Inventor Charles K. Chan Ching W. Tang Fridrich Vazan Amal Ghosh
Ching Wan Tang was inducted into the National Inventors Hall of Fame in 2018 for inventing OLED(together with Steven Van Slyke), and was awarded the 2011 Wolf Prize in Chemistry.[1]
APPLICATION BEYOND OLED MICRODISPLAYS
At the 2:50 mark of this video eMagin shows 2K x 2K OLED microdisplays at Display Week 2019, Amal Gosh of eMagin explains direct patterning and the application beyond microdisplays stating -
"It should be usable anywhere in OLED's but for now we are doing it for microdisplays but the technology is expandable to larger displays as well "
BEYOND OLED
Impossible to sum up the application , so just read - slowly and carefully -
United States Patent: 10,636,969 Apparatus and method of directly patterning high resolution active matrix organic light emitting diodes using high-resolution shadow mask April 28,2020
System 100 is described herein with respect to the deposition of a pattern of light-emitting material on a glass substrate as part of the fabrication of an AMOLED display. However, it will be clear to one skilled in the art, after reading this Specification, that the present invention can be directed toward the formation of directly patterned layers of virtually any thin-film and thick-film material (organic or inorganic) on any of a wide range of substrates, such as semiconductor substrates (e.g., silicon, silicon carbide, germanium, etc.), ceramic substrates, metal substrates, plastic substrates, and the like. Further, although the illustrative embodiment may be a thermal evaporation system, one skilled in the art will recognize, after reading this Specification, that the present invention can be directed toward virtually any material-deposition process, such as e-beam evaporation, sputtering, and the like. Still further, although the depicted example may be a deposition system suitable for use in single-substrate planar processing, the present invention may be also suitable for use in other fabrication approaches, such as cluster-tool processing, track processing, roll-to-roll processing, reel-to-reel processing, etc. As a result, the illustrative embodiments presented herein may be suitable for use in myriad applications including, without limitation, packaging applications, IC fabrication, MEMS fabrication, nanotechnology device fabrication, ball-grid array (BGA) fabrication, and the like.
CONCLUSION
eMagin has created an entirely new OLED direct patterning technology with a solid foundation beginning at the invention of OLED and independent from any others . It's application extends beyond OLED microdisplays and beyond the OLED industry as well .
The astute will understand the implication while others will have to wait until eMagin's value in the marketplace becomes clearer as the broad application of their direct patterning technology becomes more visible .
submitted by frankenberrylives to eMaginCorp [link] [comments]


2020.04.11 22:24 Grohmanon New Evidence for the Strange Idea that the Universe Is a Hologram. What if everything around you, from the distant stars to your very hands, were a hologram? /by Brian Koberlein

One of the great mysteries of modern cosmology is how our universe can be so thermally uniform—the vast cosmos is filled with the lingering heat of the Big Bang. Over time, it has cooled to a few degrees above absolute zero, but it can still be seen in the faint glow of microwave radiation, known as the cosmic microwave background. In any direction we look, the temperature of this cosmic background is basically the same, varying by only tiny amounts. But according to the standard “cold dark matter” model of cosmology, there wasn’t enough time for hotter and cooler regions of the early universe to even out. Even today we would expect parts of the cosmic background to be much warmer than others, but that isn’t what we observe.
One solution to this cosmological problem is known as early inflation. If the observable universe was extremely tiny in its earliest moments, it could have reached a uniform temperature very quickly. Afterwards, the theory says, the universe underwent a brief period of rapid expansion, eventually leading to the universe we observe today. We don’t have any direct evidence for early cosmic inflation, but because it would solve several issues in cosmology, it is a widely supported idea.
Recently, a team of astronomers looked at data from the Planck satellite, which gathered the most accurate measurements of the cosmic background thus far. They wanted to compare fluctuations across vast regions of the sky, known as low multipole moments, with the predictions of the standard cosmological model and a model that’s somewhat stranger, a holographic one. What if everything around you, from the distant stars to your very hands, were a hologram? Like Plato’s cave, our world of solid objects and three-dimensional space would simply be a shadow of a two-dimensional reality. On the human scale a holographic universe would be indistinguishable from the reality we expect, but on a cosmic scale there could be subtle differences we might be able to detect.
In the holographic view of cosmology, early inflation is driven by interactions of the quantum field, which would slightly change the appearance of the cosmic microwave background. This is particularly true for low multipole moments, and this difference makes it possible, at least in principle, to prove that the holographic principle is true. In their paper, published in Physical Review Letters, the team report the holographic model fitting the Planck satellite data slightly better than the standard model. The results don’t prove the universe is holographic, but they are consistent with a holographic model.
The idea that our universe might be holographic comes from string theory. Although string theory hasn’t been proven experimentally, its mathematical structure has an elegance and power that makes it appealing as a theoretical model. The holographic principle in string theory is just such an example. In its broadest form, the holographic principle states that anything you can know about a particular volume of space can be learned by looking at the surface enclosing the volume. Just as a hologram can contain a three-dimensional image within a sheet of glass or plastic, the universe could contain its vast volume within a surface.
For example, imagine a road 10 miles long that is “contained” by a start line and a finish line. Suppose the speed limit on this road is 60 miles per hour, and we want to know if a car has been speeding. One way to do this is to watch a car travel the whole length of the road, measuring its speed the whole time. But another way is to simply measure when a car crosses the start line and finish line. At a speed of 60 miles per hour, a car travels a mile a minute, so if the time between start and finish is less than 10 minutes, we know the car was speeding.
If the holographic principle is true, then the universe can be viewed in two different ways: one of space and volume as we intuitively experience it, and one of a “surface” with one less dimension. This holographic duality is mathematically powerful because some laws of physics can be much easier to work with in one view than the other.
The structure of our universe is driven by the constant pull of gravity between stars and galaxies. In the present era, gravity is weak compared to other forces, and is described as a gravitational field in general relativity. In the dual holographic view, gravity is described as a quantum field that can interact strongly with mass. Since it is easier to calculate weak interactions than strong ones, the general relativity approach is more useful. However, in the early moments of cosmic time, when the universe was hot and dense, the gravitational fields of relativity were strong, so quantum fields of the holographic view might be easier to deal with.
The fact that both the standard and holographic models can account for early inflation supports the idea that the holographic principle applies to our universe. Cosmic inflation remains a mystery, but by viewing the universe as a hologram we might just be able to solve it.
Brian Koberlein is an astrophysicist and physics professor at Rochester Institute of Technology.
submitted by Grohmanon to SimulationTheory [link] [comments]


2020.04.09 00:15 CuteBananaMuffin Where There Aliens Before Us?

Where There Aliens Before Us?
by Adam Frank July 14, 2016 from NPR Website


https://preview.redd.it/m19zkcau4or41.jpg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=44e43b0aafe1936b5a147adb47312d9a70ed3812
Earth as seen by the Expedition 47 crew on May 31, 2016, from the International Space Station - looking from northwestern China on the bottom into eastern Kazakhstan.
The large lake in Kazakhstan with golden sun glint is the crescent-shaped Lake Balkhash, the second largest lake in Central Asia.NASA

Are we the only civilization-building intelligent species that has ever occurred in the universe?
It's one of science's oldest questions.
Earlier this year, my colleague Woody Sullivan and I published a paper in the journal Astrobiology (A New Empirical Constraint on the Prevalence of Technological Species in the Universe) presenting new results that, I believe, throw new light on the ancient question.
And, based on that work, last month I wrote an OpEd in The New York Times that ran with provocative title "Yes, There Were Aliens."
The Times piece found a large audience and generated strong responses running from agreement to dissent to folks telling me I really should look into UFOs (sorry, not my thing).
Today, I would like, once again, to present our argument and dive a little deeper into its meaning and its limits. In particular, I want to address two excellent rebuttals written by Ross Andersen in The Atlantic and Ethan Siegel in Forbes.
Neither Andersen or Siegel was buying some of my contentions and they both made good points. The thing about science (take note climate deniers) is that it's really a call and response.
Both Andersen and Siegel are great writers. Their skepticism made me think even harder about the ideas in our paper and that was really helpful.
One note before we begin. This piece is a tad long because I need to introduce some of the background for the rest of my argument to make sense. Those familiar with the "Drake equation" and its history can skip the next section.
The Background
In 1961, astronomer Frank Drake was asked to convene a meeting to hash out the possibilities of interstellar communication.
Drake decided to frame the question in terms of one simple one:
What is the number of alien civilizations (let's call them exo-civilizations) existing now in the galaxy?
To foster discussion at his meeting, Drake broke the problem up into seven pieces.
Each piece represented a different aspect of the problem and each could be expressed as a factor in an equation for the total number of existing exo-civilizations (which we will refer to as N).
Drake's equation looks like this:

University of Rochester Courtesy of Adam Frank

In Drake's equation,
R\* is number of stars born each year fp is the fraction of stars that have planets ne is number of planets per star living on orbits in the right place for life to form (the so-called "Goldilocks" zone) fe is the fraction of planets where life gets started fi is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligence evolves fc is the fraction that go on to develop advanced technological civilizations
The final factor 'L' is the most haunting, representing the average lifetime of a technological civilization.
The Drake equation has been hugely important for thinking about life in the universe. For the past 50 years, it's served as a critical guide for astronomers in organizing their thinking and their investigations of the subject.
What's important to note is that when Drake wrote his equation in 1961, only the first term, the number of stars forming per year, was even close to being known. Every other term was "data free."
That meant through most of its history, scientists using the Drake equation could only provide educated guesses about the other terms.
If you where optimistic, you argued for values that led to a large value of N. If you were pessimistic, you argued for values that led to tiny values of N.
It was a free-for-all...
But that was before the exo-planet revolution. In the past 20 years, astronomical discoveries have transformed our understanding of planets orbiting other stars. In the process, they have nailed the second two terms in the Drake equation (fp and ne).
What we found was that there were planets everywhere...
Pretty much every star in the sky hosts at least one planet.
The New Work
In our paper, Woody and I realized that we could use this giant leap forward to do something that, to our knowledge, had not been done before. We used the new data to say something a little more definite about exo-civilizations.
To accomplish this, we first changed the question.
We abandoned,
"How many exo-civilizations exist now?" and focused instead on "How many exo-civilizations have their ever been?"
This approach allowed us to ignore the lifetime term L.
It also allowed us to think differently about the three unknown probabilities involving life (fl, fi, and ft).
Rather that dealing with them separately, our approached focused on all three terms together. That means we were interested in the whole enchilada: the entire process going from the origin of life all the way up to an advanced civilization.
We called our new term the "bio-technical probability," fbt, and it's nothing more than the product of the usual life-centric terms in the Drake equation. In the language of math fbt = fl * fi * ft.
By looking at the problem this way - and using the new exo-planet data and rearranging things - our results provide an empirical constraint to a very different question than the one Drake's equation usually focuses on.
Here is our question:
What would the bio-technical probability per planet have to be for us to be the only civilization that ever occurred in the entire history of the universe?
Putting in our exo-planet date, we found the answer is 10-22 or 1 in 10 billion trillion.
We call this number the "pessimism line," and you can think about its meaning in a bunch of ways.
First, imagine you had a big bag of Goldilocks zone planets (planets in orbits where liquid water can exist on the surface). Our results says that you'd have to go through 10 billion trillion planets and only find one with an exo-civilization for humans to be unique.
Another approach is to recognize that, until our work, no one really knew what pessimism meant.
Were you a pessimist if, for example, you thought fbt was 1 in a million or 1 in a billion?
Before our paper, there was no way put a firm limit on which values for the life-centric terms in the Drake equation implied we were alone in the deepest sense of the word. What Woody and I found was that if nature, in its infinite wisdom, chooses a value below 1 in 10 billion trillion, then we're the only civilization ever.
But if nature chooses a number bigger than one in 10 billion trillion then we (meaning life and intelligence and civilization) has happened before.
The Critique
One in 10 billion trillion is a pretty small number. My argument in The New York Times piece was that it's so small that the implication must be that exo-civilizations have probably happened before (possibly a lot).
I considered it a kind of "argument by exhaustion."
But some folks disagreed. One of the principle objections raised to my piece was that the fact that just because 10-22 is small does not constitute a proof that exo-civilizations have existed before us.
In particular Andersen took issue with this sentence:
"...the degree of pessimism required to doubt the existence, at some point in time, of an advanced extraterrestrial civilization borders on the irrational."
It is here that I have to agree with the critique. I should not have used the word "irrational."
That's because, in spite of the tiny size of the pessimism line, it's not "irrational" to doubt that we are unique in cosmic history. In fact, the only empirically valid claim Woody and I can make is as follows:
We can say with certainty where the pessimism line lies (one in 10 billion trillion). In the absence of more data it is rationally possible to construct an argument that claims nature's value for the bio-technical probability lies below 10-22.
Where I disagree with Andersen and Siegel, however, is how to interpret our result.
First is an idea that our bio-technical probability, fbt, somehow hides the fact that each of the life-centric terms in the Drake equation could be small on its own.
The headline in The Atlantic piece said "Fancy Math Can't Make Aliens Real" (though Andersen may not have had anything to do with the headline). I had to chuckle at that sentence, though, because the math I used was anything but fancy.
Even though I started out doing something more complicated, the result turns out to be embarrassingly trivial. It's just one over the number of Goldilocks zone planets in the observable universe.
More to the point, we didn't establish our "pessimism line" by ignoring possibly small values of the individual life-centric terms. Instead we represented them all together.
Here is how it works.
First, let's say you think the probability of getting life to form on a Goldilocks planet is one in a million (fl = 10-6).
You might also think the probability that getting intelligence to form from life on one of those planets is one in a million (fi =10-6) too.
Finally, you could also say there's a one in a million for one of the planets that formed life and then evolved intelligence to go on and create a technological civilization (ft = 10-6).
That means the total bio-technical probability will be one in a million trillion (10-6 * 10-6 * 10-6 = 10-18).
There is no slight of hand here.
Whatever arguments one wants to make about how improbable the formation of life or the evolution of intelligence or the creation of civilizations might be - they are all expressed within the bio-technical probability.
Note that the choices above, when compared with the pessimism line, lead to 10,000 exo-civilizations occurring over cosmic history.
Also, while its true that we can't say anything explicitly data-driven past our derivation of the pessismism line, the history of debate about the Drake equation provides ample material to think more deeply about our result. While many have argued that exo-civilizations would be rare, the sense of what rare means is rarely specified explicitly.
If you scratch below the surface, rare often means orders of magnitude above our 10-22 pessimism line.
To see this point, let's take a particularly famous example.
In 1983, the physicist Brandon Carter developed an absolutely ingenious argument against exo-civilizations based on the observation that the time for intelligence to arise on Earth was close the total age of the sun. Using this one fact, he further made the case that intelligence required evolution to pass through a series of "hard steps," each of which would be highly improbable.
Imagining there were 10 evolutionary "hard steps," he did a calculation where he found the total probability for exo-civilizations to form to be 10-20.
He then claimed, this value,
"is more than sufficient to ensure that our stage of development is unique in the visible universe."
But it's not!
The pessimism line we derived shows that Carter's 1983 calculation still allows 100 exo-civilizations.
Carter intended his calculation to be hyper-pessimistic, but it turns out to be optimistic instead. It should also be noted that researchers now believe only five hard steps exist (if they exist at all).
This, along the other values in Carter's original paper, imply a probability of 10-10 which, along with our pessimism line, implies a trillion exo-civilizations across cosmic history. (It's also noteworthy that authors like Mario Livio present arguments that undermine the basis for Carter's work).
Of course, it's still possible to construct arguments leaving the probability far below our pessimism line, ensuring we're the only exo-civilization that ever formed. But it's here that, I believe, the most important implication of our result emerges.
Our probability is not an abstraction. It's not just a pure number. Instead, it represents something very real. It represents 10 billion trillion planets existing in the right place for nature to have at it. Each world is place where winds may blow over mountains, where mists may rise in valleys, where seas may churn and rivers may flow.
(Note our solar system has two worlds in the Goldilocks zone - Earth and Mars - and both have had winds, seas and rivers).
When you hold that image in your mind, you see something remarkable:
The pessimism line actually represents the 10 billion trillion times the universe has run its experiment with planets and life.
That's why our result has implications worth exploring.
For the first chunk of the 20th century, the dominant mechanism for planet formation was thought to be near collisions between stars. Now we know better, and we can empirically constrain the pessimism line. Because it turns out to be very small (or, conversely, the number Goldilocks zone planets is so large), it means the burden falls on the hyper-pessimists.
The universe gets to run the experiment many, many times.
So if you want to argue Earth is unique, then the onus is on you to show why technological intelligence is so strongly selected against.
And any hyper-pessimist argument will be balanced by the fact that there are many good new arguments that the emergence of life and intelligence may not be so hard to obtain.
Many of these optimistic views come from advances in biology.
For example Wentao Ma and collaborators use computer simulations to show that the first replicating molecules could have been short strands of RNA that were easy to form and which quickly led to a "takeover" by DNA.
And, as neurobiologist Lori Marino has argued, human intelligence evolved on top of cognitive structures that already had a long history of life on Earth. Thus our kind of intelligence should no longer be seen as entirely separated from what evolved before. It's special but not that special.
Thus skeptics are entirely right that without any more data one must remain formally agnostic about exo-civilizations.
You can't assign a probability to an unknown process. But to stop there misses a key point about our moment in science and in history.
Astrobiology, the study of life in the universe, has made tremendous strides through studies of our world, the other worlds in our solar system and, famously, the newly discovered exo-planets.
The study Woody Sullivan and I carried out is firmly situated in the midst of these expanding astrobiological horizons. Taken together, I believe our results mean that most pessimists (on the question we asked) are actually optimists and the remaining hyper-pessimists - well, they really have some 'splaining' to do.
Finally note that our study said nothing about the existence of civilizations now. We were dealing with a kind of exo-civilization archeology.
If that all important lifetime factor L is not long, then our neighborhood the Milky Way galaxy might be entirely empty (other than us) in the current cosmic epoch...
submitted by CuteBananaMuffin to conspiracy [link] [comments]


2020.04.08 13:25 Fwoggie2 Covid-19 update Wednesday 8th April

Good morning from the UK. For those people whose days blur into one another, today is a Wednesday. For any fellow Brits who haven’t realised yet, this Friday is Good Friday which means Monday is a bank holiday. 4 day weekend for us!
The UK and US continue to grab most of the global headlines - the UK due to the plight of its prime minister Boris Johnson (the TLDR there is that he’s still in intensive care, his condition is unchanged). The US is grabbing the headlines because of the sheer volume of cases / deaths in the country plus also for some of the quotes being given and actions being taken by President Trump.
Today’s round up is Guardian heavy. Sorry if you’re not a fan of them, I was pushed for time.

Virus news in depth


Coronavirus: UK will have Europe's worst death toll, says study - If you’re British like me this is rather frightening; the Guardian reports (Link) that “world-leading disease data analysts” (their phrase not mine) have projected that the UK will become the country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic in Europe, accounting for more than 40% of total deaths across the continent. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak. The analysts also claim discussions over “herd immunity” led to a delay in the UK introducing physical distancing measures, which were brought in from 23 March in England when the coronavirus daily death toll was 54. Portugal, by comparison, had just one confirmed death when distancing measures were imposed. The IHME modelling forecasts that by 4 August the UK will see a total of 66,314 deaths. Spain is projected to have 19,209 deaths by the same date, Italy 20,300 and France 15,058. All three countries have imposed tougher lockdown measures than the UK. (Personal note for fellow Brits, 66k = a town the size of Paignton in Devon, Rochester in Kent, Loughborough in Leicestershire, Dewsbury in W Yorks or Washington in Tyne and Wear. I expect we will hear a lot more about this herd immunity and in particular Dominic Cummings once the pandemic ebbs away; Cummings will probably be thrown under the bus for it).

Fears of crisis in global car finance markets as owners seek payments help - Fears are growing of a crisis in the UK’s £75bn car loan market, where 6.5m vehicles have been financed through leasing deals with monthly payments that are already proving unaffordable for some laid-off as a result of the coronavirus says the Guardian (link). The Finance and Leasing Association (FLA), which represents the credit arms of the car manufacturers as well as the banks, said: “It’s early days in terms of quantifying the impact on arrears, but the number of forbearance requests has grown significantly in recent weeks.” Britain’s car market rests on billions in debt taken out by consumers, many of whom may now struggle to pay. Around nine out of 10 of the 2.3m new cars sold in a typical year in Britain are paid for using some sort of financing provided by an FLA member. The most common purchase method has been personal contract plans (PCP), where a buyer puts down a deposit and then rents the vehicle for two to three years at a monthly cost, typically around £250. Problems in the UK car loans market may pale into insignificance compared with the colossal scale of auto lending in the US, which totals $1.3tn (£1tn). Some of it has been securitised into bonds that bear echoes of “subprime” lending common before the financial crisis of 2007-08. Around $30bn of new subprime vehicle loans were issued in 2019, and there have been reports of some lenders verifying the income of just 8% of borrowers – whose loans are then bundled into bonds sold on Wall Street as an income stream for investors. However, the US Federal Reserve has already stepped in with a programme to support “asset-backed securities”, including bonds holding auto loans.

Trump threatens to hold WHO funding, then backtracks, amid search for scapegoat - The Guardian has written a critical article on Trump again, saying he hunted for a new scapegoat on Tuesday in an increasingly frantic attempt to shift blame for thousands of American deaths from the coronavirus, accusing the World Health Organization (WHO) of having “called it wrong” and being “China-centric”. Trump’s early inaction has come under renewed scrutiny in the past day after a New York Times report that Peter Navarro, Trump’s trade adviser, warned in a memo in late January that the virus could put millions of Americans at risk and cost trillions of dollars. Susan Rice, a former national security adviser, told the Washington Post that Trump’s missteps “cost tens of thousands of American lives”. The president has repeatedly denied responsibility and sought to blame China, the Obama administration and the media. On Tuesday, with the US death toll exceeding 12,000, he unleashed a tirade at the WHO, even though it raised the alarm in January, after which he made statements downplaying it and comparing it to the common flu. “They’ve been wrong about a lot of things,” Trump said at the daily White House coronavirus task force briefing. “And they had a lot of information early and they didn’t want to – they seemed to be very China centric” – implying that the WHO had toed the line of Beijing’s early efforts to minimise the scale of the outbreak.

Virus news in brief


Source: Guardian daily blog or CNN daily blog unless specified otherwise.



















Supply chain news in depth


Coronavirus: The Road to Economic and Social Recovery; We will recover, but how will we know when? - Descartes Labs, a geospatial imagery analytics startup based in California has written an interesting piece on medium.com (link) on how we may be able to use big data to understand when the economy will begin to recover. Remote sensing refers to data collected from satellites, aircraft, and distributed sensors that can provide information about the earth and help us understand human activities at a macro scale. While it is possible to understand the economic consequences of coronavirus through news reports and surveys, remote sensing provides direct observations that can be aggregated on a large scale and automatically processed for real-time insights. Descartes Labs, has developed a set of tracking and monitoring tools that can be used by businesses to understand consumer and supply chain activities that are critically important to revenues which harness aggregated mobility tracking, location-specific activity tracking, regional NO2 tracking and supply-chain tracking.

Logistics Manager Editor’s Blog: Has COVID-19 shown we have an e-commerce problem? - The editor of Logistics manager magazine (which has a UK lean in the topics it covers) has written an article reviewing the ecommerce sector. “If there is an area of the economy that is thriving right now it the supermarket sector. Yet limited delivery slots meant that only 14.6% of households received an online delivery in the four weeks to 22 March, up from 13.8% in March 2019 but most-likely well below actual demand. The truth is that as much as the logistics sector likes to celebrate its considerable achievements in the migration to e-commerce, some businesses were too stuck in the tried and traditional ways of working to actually reach the peaks. COVID-19 will change well-understood behavioural economics. Consumers won’t be the same after a global pandemic the likes of which we have never seen in our lifetimes.” He argues that businesses must immediately fully adapt to ecommerce channel fulfilment or they will most likely fail to survive. We were quick to celebrate the achievements of the sector, particularly in replacing the 30% of calories consumed outside the home with sales in bricks and mortar supermarkets. We were quick to celebrate that existing e-commerce infrastructure did not entirely fall apart. Yet there wasn’t enough capacity to deliver food to homes that wanted it, and in some cases needed it. There were not enough drivers and not enough vehicles, even if the right volume of food was in the system.

Supply chain news in brief

















Good news section


The Easter Bunny Is An Essential Worker, New Zealand's Ardern Says - New Zealand prime minister has clarified (link) to the nation’s children that the government considers the easter bunny and tooth fairies as essential workers and are thus able to continue doing their jobs. Ardern announced the exemption in response to rampant speculation by New Zealand's youngest citizens, who had wondered how the coronavirus crisis might affect the traditional arrival of colorful eggs, chocolates and other treats. The prime minister however warned that in some cases, the pair might not be able to provide the level of service young people have come to expect. "So I say to the children of New Zealand, if the Easter Bunny doesn't make it to your household, then we have to understand that it's a bit difficult at the moment for the bunny to perhaps get everywhere," Ardern said.
submitted by Fwoggie2 to supplychain [link] [comments]


2020.02.22 14:46 LordHughRAdumbass Weird RT article on methane making the rounds. Anyone have more info?

"Doomsday prophecies of ancient methane being released as temperatures rise are WRONG, say scientists"
I can't find any papers published by "Vasily Petrenko, a professor of Earth and environmental sciences at Rochester" (nor find a paper by this "team of researchers").
So far my cointel red flag is up. Is this about Putin's Arctic Initiative? If so, it would be so sweet to make this backfire on RT.
P.S. Still investigating, but something doesn't add up here.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6480/846
https://www.advancedsciencenews.com/old-carbon-reservoirs-unlikely-to-cause-massive-greenhouse-gas-release/
Note completely different slant in Original press release provided by the University of Rochester
Suspicious:
The Clathrate gun hypothesis (what's being discredited here) is mostly about methyl hydrates in the ESAS. Global sea levels have been steadily rising for the last 20 kyrs. Today the average depth of the ESAS is shallow (mean depth is ~50 m). During the range of the study the ESAS probably wasn't even under water for at least half the time. It varies from dry (terrestrial) to submerged (marine) conditions. So it's not at all clear what is doing the "buffering" (wild speculation) referred to in the paper.
It's a mystery how the methyl hydrates in the ESAS have survived for the last 15 kyrs. The subsea permafrost has warmed by up to 17 °C during the last 12 kyrs, so there are various theories. But the most obvious one is ...
Exposed to the low Arctic surface temperatures, marine sediments were subjected to a drastic change in their thermal regime—cooling by as much as −28 °C [28]. This led to freezing of the uppermost few hundred meters of sediments; as a result permafrost formed, covering the upper few hundred meters of the sedimentary drape with an impermeable cap.
As Shakova, Semiletov. Chuvilin et. al have warned for almost the last decade, this cap is degrading.
So to come out with a paper that prompts headlines like "Doomsday prophecies of ancient methane being released as temperatures rise are WRONG, say scientists" is irresponsible. The more honest headline should probably read: "Graduate student Michael Dyonisius attempts to write his first science paper" or "University of Rochester has shoddy peer review process".
As to RT, I hardly know what to say.
submitted by LordHughRAdumbass to xrmed [link] [comments]


2020.01.30 23:42 succulent_bricks lusis

Louis Lasagna

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaJump to navigationJump to searchLouis Lasagna📷BornFebruary 22, 1923 Queens, New York), U.S.DiedAugust 6, 2003 (aged 80) Auburndale, Massachusetts, U.S.Occupationphysician, professorKnown forrevision of the Hippocratic OathSpouse(s)Helen LasagnaChildrenNina, David, Mosie, Krissy, Lisa, Peter, and Christopher
Louis Cesare Lasagna (February 22, 1923 – August 6, 2003) was an American physician and professor of medicine, known for his revision of the Hippocratic Oath.[1]

Contents

Early life and education[edit]

Lasagna was an internationally recognized and respected expert in clinical pharmacology. Born in Queens, New York) in 1923, Lasagna was raised in New Brunswick, New Jersey, by his Italian immigrant parents. He graduated from Rutgers University in 1943 and earned his medical degree from Columbia University in 1947. During his time at Rutgers University, he joined Kappa Sigma Fraternity (Gamma-Upsilon). After completing a clinical research fellowship in anesthesia at Harvard Medical School, Lasagna joined the faculty of Johns Hopkins University in 1954, where he established the first ever clinical pharmacology department. Lasagna taught medicine and pharmacology at Johns Hopkins until 1970, when he accepted the position as the first chairman of the Department of Pharmacology and Toxicology at the University of Rochester's, School of Medicine and Dentistry, which he held for the next decade (1970–1980). Early in his fourteen-year career at Rochester, Lasagna founded the Center for the Study of Drug Development, later called the Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development. In July 1984, the Center moved with Lasagna to Tufts University, where he became dean of the Sackler School of Graduate Biomedical Sciences.
While living in Rochester, Lasagna was also active in the city's cultural life, serving as the President of the Rochester Philharmonic Orchestra, supporting the Garth Fagan Dance company, and writing, directing, and starring in the "Mighty Lasagna Players" annual theater production by the University of Rochester, Department of Pharmacology Medical and Toxicology students and faculty.

Revision of Hippocratic oath[edit]

Throughout Lasagna's career he wrote and lectured extensively on a variety of topics. He was well known for his simple eloquence, as well as his sense of humor and humanity in addressing such controversial topics as birth control, abortion, euthanasia, and medical experimentation on humans. In 1964, Lasagna wrote a modernized version of the Hippocratic Oath,[2] which emphasized a holistic and compassionate approach to medicine. Today, the "Lasagna Oath"[3] has been adopted by many medical colleges.

The Doctors' Dilemmas[edit]

Lasagna was the author of the book The Doctors' Dilemmas (1963). It was described in a review as an "unusually readable account of the complex development of medical practice from a confusion of superstition and ignorance in its earliest days down to its present."[4] In one chapter, Lasagna had criticized popular alternative medicine ideas and famous quacks such as Franz Mesmer and Elisha Perkins.[5]

Involvement with US Federal drug regulation[edit]

In addition to updating the Hippocratic oath, Lasagna figured prominently in the conceptualization of controlled clinical trials and the placebo effect. He served as a consultant to, and headed, several Federal commissions on Federal drug approval. Lasagna's work led to the improvement of controlled clinical trials to test drug effectiveness, and improved the regulation of drugs for effectiveness and safety.
In 1962 Lasagna delivered testimony to Congress during the Kefauver hearings on the 1962 amendments to the Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act. His guidance resulted in, among other things, the requirement for controlled clinical trials as necessary for proving drug effectiveness as a condition for regulatory approval of a new drug which resulted in major improvements in the evidentiary standard in the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the pharmaceutical industry. This was the first prescription drug law in the world to specify the criteria for proving effectiveness, and other countries soon followed suit. It may be the largest single advance in the standards and outcome of medical therapy of all time.
Among the subsequent committees that Lasagna served on were: the National Committee to Review Procedures for the Approval of New Cancer and AIDS Drugs, the "blue ribbon" panel to examine the FDA, and the "Rogers Group" aimed at reforming drug regulation processes.

Academic accolades[edit]

Lasagna's numerous honors and awards include honorary Sc.D. degrees from Hahnemann Medical School (1980) and Rutgers University (1983); and an honorary doctoral degree from the University of Alcalá in Spain (1998).

Death[edit]

Lasagna died in August 2003 of lymphoma.[6] He was survived by his wife Helen; children Nina, David, Mosie, Krissy, Lisa, Peter, and Christopher; and grandchildren Molly, Joe, Maggie, Emma, Kari, Alison, Deacon, and Carmen.

Archives[edit]

Lasagna's letters and manuscripts are archived at the University of Rochester.
This article incorporates information from the archive, with written permission.[citation needed]

Publications[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Kaitin, Kenneth. (2004). In Memorium: Louis C. Lasagna, M.D., 1923–2003. American Journal of Therapeutics 11: 80-81.
  2. ^ Lasagna, Louis (1964). "Hippocratic Oath—Modern Version". WGBH Educational Foundation for PBS and NOVA Online. Retrieved 7 November 2001.
  3. ^ Lasagna, Louis. "Hippocratic Oath – Modern Version Archived 2013-09-21 at the Wayback Machine". University of California San Diego University Ethics Center. Retrieved 20 September 2013.
  4. ^ "Doctors' Dilemmas". The New England Journal of Medicine.
  5. ^ "Man's Gullibility Keeps Art of Quackery Thriving". The Victoria Advocate. May 27, 1962.
  6. ^ Wright, P (2003). "Obituary: Louis Lasagna"14640-5/fulltext). The Lancet. Elsevier. 362 (9393): 1423. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(03)14640-5. Retrieved 19 April 2009.
Authority control 📷
Categories:

Navigation menu

Search

Interaction

Tools

Print/export

Languages

Edit links
submitted by succulent_bricks to u/succulent_bricks [link] [comments]


2020.01.17 01:28 Brillmedal Logical discussion of lesser explained visual phenomenon

Logical discussion of lesser explained visual phenomenon
Literally not an expert in anything. This is me connecting the dots on reproducible phenomenon in terms of THE BRAIN and visual processing rather than the subjective scenes you might experience. (I also update this on a semi regular basis check the edits through the piece.)
It's a long list of semi related thoughts and far from incomplete but I'd really love to hear other people chime in to bring together an insight and objectify the subjective. I'm using this as an excuse to write up some cool little ideas in probably the best place for it; assuming we all love the visual experience as equally.
See here for the post on closed eye visuals
Palinopsia/Positive Afterimages/Tracers and seccadic masking
Positive afterimages or tracers as we call them are full colour smears or burn-ins rather than the negative colour images associated with overexcited (tired) photo receptors. They are a neurological phenomenon and unexplained, I'd like to see someone bring up the relation to the stopped-clock illusion or seccadic masking which is the act in which your brain "pauses" your vision during eye movement and replaces the blurry time in-between with the end image. Through this process you "lose" about 45 minutes a day and you can experience this yourself by noticing the first second of looking at a clock always appears longer.
IMG
https://preview.redd.it/qm2q6hvb6cb41.png?width=2524&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2c44c6ce1c6303102c1b1f9ee7adabc9b59f131
Perhaps seccadinc masking is disturbed when psychs are involved or with HPPD, as my replication shows from experience. Retinal persistence is also another name for this phenomenon but I haven't read much about it just yet.
EDIT 29/02/2020: So I found something called Sensory memory which is a good read on persistence of vision and is basically a form of memory just below short term where you senses store it just long enough for it to be recognised. Beta Movement is the basis for why frames can make smooth video.
I guess it has something to do with the motion detectors in your brain triggering this extension of the image into a smeary overlay rather than just being a constant effect as it's not consistent through trips or waking life. An extreme opposite to this would be Akinetopsia whom see no motion and rather the world in a freeze frame video.
Other cool topics to look into around this are chronostasis; intrasaccadic perception; transsicadic memory; and flicker fusion threshold.

Visual snow/Moire Patten and Aliasing in the brain
Visual snow is a more common one and is a common symptom of HPPD and psychedelics. Again super unresearched but suggested it's to do with an overactive visual system and a lack of filtering in signal noise. Moire pattern in this sense (aliasing in biological vision) is that wavy magnetic field looking image when you try to take a picture of a TV or screen, and is down to conflicting packets of information in which the pixels can't decide which location they belong to and you get some kind of equilibrium in which they produce a funky pattern.
EDIT 03/04/2020: Notice also white lights have a greater probability of being diffracted when tripping or HPPD is heightened, maybe they brain doesn't stitch colours together correctly or more likely doesn't filter out colour fringes that usually would have been previously (A white light is obviously made up of more than one colour, but generally it's just distracting to know what it's made up of on a small scale thus your brain blanks it)
Aliasing is something that is thought of in terms of signal processing but generally not the brain, as it's not something we experience to the degree of a digital camera; noise is filtered out before it reaches our visual experience. These shapes are called interference fringes and I get these quite heavily looking at street lights, and type of fringes will change depending on the orientation/shape of the light (I can't really explain this)
IMG
https://preview.redd.it/feuojfud6cb41.jpg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eb260b9f65b84f39c06ae9943644507b191a8492
It makes good sense to me that Aliasing is behind visual snow and the moire patterns you can experience looking at a bright light on trips or with hppd.
Here's a good text on biological Aliasing that I haven't read fully yet but there's actually very little on the subject anywhere as it's generally only spoken of in a figurative way rather than something that we actually know happens.

EDIT 24/01/19: Mainly as a reference for myself, this fringe pattern is essentially destructive interference as with the double slit experiment. Obviously "physics" are not so much involved here but it's still a similar concept, signals cancelling each other out? Really wish I was smart enough to understand a lot of the terminology as I know this can have optical implications for the eye too, I can't speak for everyone but mine are definitely of an optical nature (changes if I squint) even if that's because it's not being filtered out as well.
How we perceive our own retina (Lengthy paper that looks like it might touch on some things)
EDIT 11/06/2020 Bonus fact, when you close your eyes you do not see black, you see Eigengrau. This is the colour your brain projects in the absence of light since contrast is more important than 'absolute brightness'. It's more of a grey-black. This is the same phenomenon as visual static.
EDIT 30/03/2020: Why visual snow is worse in the dark. (Really interesting video)
https://preview.redd.it/5lnstmzkykq41.png?width=787&format=png&auto=webp&s=36e15afb58a15a00251b609e864d275f1e8fda4c

Form Constants/Symmetry and patterns
So most of us know about these but don't really understand them mathematically and I'm in that same boat. As I understand it the way your brain processes data from the retina is in a certain formation that under the right circumstances you can perceive this very algorithm at work. The effects consist of the geometry that make up your visual field; when you pay attention you'll notice that there's almost a grid at work behind your eyes that the picture seems to use as a reference and sometimes can be overwhelming. This is generally what people see as the "veil".
I'm not sure about you guys but for me different drugs produce different form constants but it's almost always the same types. The full math and theory can be found above.
IMG
https://preview.redd.it/i6dfao1f6cb41.jpg?width=944&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=23b126d9ef0038cc1b4dcd9dd0996f0c38ddcbe1
One theory for symmetry I like is that you can question why we ever see symmetry in the world at all? Rarely anything is symmetrical from our 2D into 3D visual field. You see a tiger or pineapple and "see" it's symmetry in ordinary life but from a purely optic point of view it's hardly perfect symmetry, but by taking out the extra work required to guess whatever objective shape the item is, your brain informs you it's symmetrical, saving immensely on processing power with a rotation and translation instead of recalculating the object completely. Obviously psychedelics interfere with this greatly and your brain takes liberties in assuming. For the same reason you get drifting, the visual system loses track of that spot and re-finds it again and the only explanation is the texture must have moved and thus you experience it as fact.
IMG

https://preview.redd.it/ei8c6vzj6cb41.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=aba9db23499d168f0f691e27cae9a775ce5449de
Objects phasing/vision slicing/binocular rivalry
I assume the same process that melds the two eye inputs together is at work for these. Usually there is a priority portion of the image and that one is selected at that time, you can try it out yourself by unfocusing your eyes on a close object and watch your vision phase back from one split image to the other. You'd like to think that both eyes retain the same priority but your brain picks and chooses which eye to follow at will; try closing one eye and what do you see? It's not darkness, it's nothing, truly nothing.. Your open eye becomes centre of your visual field. Dichoptic presentation (in a hyperbolic plane) is another similar phenomenon.
IMG
https://preview.redd.it/znnvqa6l6cb41.png?width=2909&format=png&auto=webp&s=748b95b146ed559e53c117557852df8b678e0836
Flash suppression is when one eye is presented with a flashing stimuli and the other eye suppresses it's image to give the flashing priority. The same can be done with motion in the same way. One thing I've noticed is complex visuals are seriously interrupted by movement of the eyes and causes them to completely reset, however blank staring can sometimes cause the image to break down colour wise, which would link up nicely with the idea that the nervous system generally provides automatic eye movement) to keep the relevant neurons stimulated. I assume a movement of the eyes provides enough stimulation to perform whatever recalculation on the image however small has a knock on effect. For some interesting stuff and potentially relevant pattern generation in nature look up Allen Turing (Stochastic patterns)
Diffraction/Eye Apperature
Typically lights can be brighter and more vibrant, not only because of pupil dilation I assume but also because of upped contrast. Sometimes white light seems more colourful and I assume this is a combination of both pupil dilation and also the brain isn't doing it's usual filtering mechanism to get rid of the useless halo around a streetlight. There will be some optics involved I guess but most of it I expect is down to filtering or lack of.
Diffraction spikes are the points you see when you squint as the light diffracting around your eyelashes and eyeball ect. Also look for Spider diffraction
IMG
https://preview.redd.it/nzr403pn6cb41.jpg?width=1709&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=20e3086976e443121fd38268ec034426cfcc1b24
Phosphenes relating to closed eye visuals
Just as much guesswork as the other stuff but I'd like to say perhaps phosphenes although generally associated with physical stimulation (like eye rubbing) are actually heavily played on by closed eye visuals. When I rub my eyes I (generally) get very distinct blue phosphene spots very reminiscent of the psychedellic visuals that poke through my field of view. There are many types of closed eye visuals sure, some more realistic than others; but at the end of the day if you have eyes closed or just in a dark room there's no difference visually than visual "pixels" actually being triggered neurologically albeit dim.
EDIT 16/02/2020:
Ganzfield effect " a phenomenon of perception caused by exposure to an unstructured, uniform stimulation field.[1] The effect is the result of the brain amplifying neural noise in order to look for the missing visual signals. "
IMG
https://preview.redd.it/nvc37zlo6cb41.jpg?width=975&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f5ce55514735190fa52a9ba407b833e7aa07411e
I find this a good example of that moment closed eye visuals and open eye visuals merge into an overlay picture that reacts to one another
If you stuck with this whole thing then thanks for reading. I'm really interested in other people's reasoning, as it's really hard to find people who talk about their visuals from an objective standpoint rather than saying things like "it can't be explained" or "i saw myself in a cave with skeletons". Many things can be explained they just need lots of work; sometimes it's worth it to put our heads together and get a degree of satisfaction and logic from the chaos.
1/3rd of your brain is dedicated to visual processing and there's no wonder knowing how much goes into it. Further reading, sheer perception (learning and progressing perception), uniform tilings (patterns), room tilt illusion, amodal perception.
Philosophy of perception, also check Disjuctivism which is when your brain rejects direct sensory input for a preference to tell you different things based on something it's not adapted for. (For example turn your tongue upside down and touch the bottom and it will still feel like the bottom)
A really thorough article on visual processing
https://preview.redd.it/7ct1fcy79cb41.png?width=1402&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c100289fb1ec5cd105662bf5a90f7264519ee93
The Case Against Reality, Donald Hoffman (Explains how we cannever see objective reality "as it is" by definition and will continue to create it internally, since your perspective can never be anything other than your own. Our brains are made for survival and not for universal correctness.
I Am A Strange Loop, Douglass Hoffstadter (This book is incredible). It describes thought and the generation of the self via logic and analogies rather than either spiritual or a biological means.
The Big Picture, Sean Carrol (Gives a brilliant take on the way time should be perceived)
The Deep History of Ourselves, Joseph LeDoux (Explains consciousness built from sludge to humans)
If you're looking to blow your mind on how kooky the brain can get (psychological disorders) I recommend "The man who mistook his Wife for a hat", also "It's all in your head" and another I plan to read "Reaching down the rabbit hole"
Full theory and math on form constants
Please send or let me know if you have any other good reads or you've made some cool discoveries yourself on the way your brain operates! Visuals are a MASSIVE insight into consciousness as it tends to shape our lives and our perceptions make us who we are. Just because somethings anecdotal doesn't mean it isn't subjectively repeatable for most of us and common connections are visible it's just they are rarely articulated; hopefully we can get some concrete logic down so people can help from referring to the same thing in completely different ways making it seem like an ever-deepening hole.
EDIT: 11/06/2020
Qualia computing ELI5. I completely forgot this project exists but reading into it properly this basically seeks to talk about things like symmetry in the brain and the complex geometry experienced at high levels of an experience, conceptualising phenomenon as we mentioned + presentation of structures in your consciousness. Exciting stuff, definitely give that a read! There's some super interesting articles on there it's a real rabbit hole; unique to anything out there. He does some podcast interviews that really go in depth.
submitted by Brillmedal to replications [link] [comments]


2020.01.14 23:41 AgilePossible Bernie will win because politics are changing

Bernie will win because politics are changing
Bernie is building momentum in ways that defy traditional thought about presidential campaigns. One is not supposed to be a democratic front-runner without big donors. What follows is an attempt to put a finer point on why its working so well. Specifically by de-bunking the myth that there is always a direct relationship between big money and victory in politics. Other factors (face-to-face contact, personal messaging, and the overwhelming number of affected working class people) matter more than money once message saturation has been achieved. The election experts who still consider Bernie's campaign a long shot are stubbornly ignoring a sea-change in electoral strategy, tactics, and thinking driven by the Sanders campaign.
What I have to say isn't necessarily original, its more a piecing-together of different ideas that have already energized this movement. Nor is it intended to be closed-ended or comprehensive. I keep putting-off publishing this (in part due to some anxiety about posting things at all...hence the alt account) but I feel like I need to get it out there.
1. Can't Pay-to-Win Elections Anymore
A flawed assumption:
There tends to be a direct causal relationship between campaign spending and odds of victory.
While there's a correlation, at least in congress, this article from 538 corrects the causal assumption and touches on several relevant and important points (I could probably use more than one source for this but a lot of points can be covered by this piece):
Money is certainly strongly associated with political success. But, “I think where you have to change your thinking is that money causes winning,” said Richard Lau, professor of political science at Rutgers. “I think it’s more that winning attracts money.”
In other words, predicted winners are over-funded by donors that want to (in theory) buy their allegiances or pad their track-record by noting how often they fund a winning candidate.
Not many studies prove causal connections to money and winning:
Even the studies that showed spending having the biggest effect, like one that found a more than 6 percent increase in vote share for incumbents, didn’t demonstrate that money causes wins. In fact, Bonica said, those gains from spending likely translate to less of an advantage today, in a time period where voters are more stridently partisan. There are probably fewer and fewer people who are going to vote a split ticket because they liked your ad.
Advertising eats billions during campaigns and it may not work:
Advertising — even negative advertising — isn’t very effective. This is a big reason why money doesn’t buy political success. Turns out, advertising, the main thing campaigns spend their money on, doesn’t work all that well. This is a really tough thing to study, Ridout said, and it’s only getting harder as media becomes more fragmented...researchers have been looking at the impacts of negative advertising since the 1990s. And, beginning around the mid-2000s, they began making serious progress on understanding how ads actually affect whether people vote and who they vote for. The picture that’s emerged is … well … let’s just say it’s probably rather disappointing to the campaigns that spend a great deal of time and effort raising all that money to begin with.
Take, for example, the study that is probably the nation’s only truly real-world political advertising field experiment. During Rick Perry’s 2006 re-election campaign for Texas governor, a team of researchers convinced Perry’s campaign to run ads in randomly assigned markets and then tracked the effect of those ads over time using surveys. Advertising did produce a pro-Perry response in the markets that received the treatment. But that bump fizzled fast. Within a week after ads stopped running, it was like no one had ever seen them.
What’s more, Ridout said, ads probably matter least in the races where campaigns spend the most on them — like presidential elections. Partly, that’s because the bigger the election, the more we already know about the people running.
You can add to the pile of failures Amazon's attempt to buy a city council election with 1.5 million. GOP and Rispone himself spent millions in the deep south and couldn't win. So while there's clearly something to be gained from advertisements, they don't always help.
While it is easy to cynically assume that the mob is fickle so dollars can buy minds, the reality is far different. It is a reality, however, that billionaire donors can't accept. They prefer the self-reported success of lobbyists, super-PAC's, and the various organizations that support them. Who have an incentive to say that a $10 million donation actually did something, even if its effects were marginal/fleeting/non-verifiable. There is a symbiotic re-assurance between lobbying billionaires and the intelligentsia that author the "proof" of their methods.
So a particular form of election theory groupthink congeals around the notion that money, while its returns may diminish, can always positively affect election outcome. Billionaires don't want to hear what their dollars can't do. So they have an inherent (ego)investment in ignoring hard evidence that over-spending on campaigns doesn't help. Which is why fundraising and "electability" are hard-sold as voting criteria. The reasoning is perfectly circular:
Those who can buy the votes have earned the votes.
Or as Maggie Koerth writes in the 538 article cited above:
Another example of where money might matter: Determining who is capable of running for elected office to begin with. Ongoing research from Alexander Fouirnaies, professor of public policy at the University of Chicago, suggests that, as it becomes normal for campaigns to spend higher and higher amounts, fewer people run and more of those who do are independently wealthy. In other words, the arms race of unnecessary campaign spending could help to enshrine power among the well-known and privileged.
“That may be the biggest effect of money in politics,” West [vice president and director of governance studies at the Brookings Institution] wrote to me in an email.
All this is changing as Bernie builds momentum.
Couple of qualifications:
1: None of this is to say that presidential campaigns don't need money or ads***!*** Certainly spending, especially on staff members and organizers, local offices, some ads and so forth is a necessary condition of winning the presidency. And if a campaign is going to have a truly national push, that requires a lot of money. However, in and of itself, money is not sufficient to win, as much disappointment that may cause the Koch's (or denial, as the case may be). So donate to Bernie because it takes a sustained collective effort by us to push back against millions raised in wine caves and so on. Also Bernie's ads do more than the competition because he actually has something to say and a massive affected audience. $5 for Bernie > $500 for Bloomberg.
2: While this deals mostly with advertising, big spending on big data during elections is truly a new beast and its not to be underestimated as Bernie progresses through the next year. Still, the connections formed through movement mobilization are the best antidote to even the most targeted of ads.
2. A better way to think about how money affects campaigns (and why you should donate):
Campaign spending's correlation with campaign success plateaus. Spending in excess of a necessary amount of money to win results in diminishing electoral returns. If a candidate can reach the necessary amount of funding to run a national presidential campaign(~$300 million), especially with a strong presence in early primary states, other factors (face-to-face messaging, connecting with impacted populations, influential voices, and economic realities) matter more than quantity of dollars raised.
Bernie doesn't need to out-raise his opponents (though in some instances he can), he just needs enough money to run for president.
Bernie can win without billionaire donors sending him money in big chunks. As long as his private donors remain consistent and enthusiastic, he'll have enough money to have offices in important states, hire a good number of campaign staff (and pay them decently and give them healthcare cause he's not a bullshitter), buy effective advertising in places where it matters, maintain strong online presence, help fund and organize travel to canvassing events, etc. Other factors (discussed below) can make-up the difference between Sanders and his better-funded opponents.
Consider this graph that normalizes dollars to inflation, population growth, and income growth and estimates the spending of presidential campaigns:

https://preview.redd.it/s579je12mta41.jpg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=668b53195e189c82c7c65cfa6cc59bd6cafcd5ce
With the outlier of Dole's campaign, one can form the generalization that it takes about $300 million to run for president. In 2016, Bernie raised $228 million and that was without the nomination or any of fundraising records he's been setting this election. I'm speculating a lot here but when faced with Bernie as the democratic choice or 4 more years of the other guy, a $100 million 3rd quarter in 2020 once his primary competitors are gone is plausible. The point is not to count unhatched chickens but to give a sense of scale; Bernie will have enough money to run for president without big donors. He may have more than enough. (Perhaps a good point to raise when discussing his 'electability' with potential supporters). In fact, his funding can be steady enough to out-spend/last qualified and well-supported opponents like Senator Kamala Harris, Senator Cory Booker, and Julian Castro.
Still, as he gets closer to winning the nomination, more and more money will be thrown in his way. Especially dark money once the general election starts. The presumptive GOP incumbent has out-raised him in each of the last few quarters.
As the campaign continues, Bernie will be out-spent by his opponents...and he'll win anyway.
He'll have enough money (and then some?) to run for president and his movement can do the rest of the work.
Billionaires shouldn't be able to buy elections, yes. But maybe they also can't.
They are failing so far this election.
3. Why everything is working and ideas for amplifying the message:
Its not only a question of how many dollars but what those dollars can do. Here are some factors that defy the thinking that funding is most of what matters for campaign success. (Certainly not a comprehensive list, and something to add to).
Too many aggrieved
Bernie's dollars spend better and his volunteers do more simply because he is speaking the truth about the circumstances millions of Americans. It is a sad but true reality that you cannot knock on 20 doors in this country without hearing the story of someone who has been victimized by a private insurance company, a payday loan provider, insulin price gouging, gentrification, shorted benefits promised to them by their service in the armed forces, etc. etc. 2/3rds of bankruptcies are medical debt.
Corporate greed leaves a wake of aggrieved people. And that wake is too broad, income inequality and exploitation of the working class has reached a breaking point. Too many people have been affected and we're finding each other. Its a numbers game the billionaires are bound to lose because they've exploited too many for too long.
Life expectancy is dropping in this country. Downward mobility is a thing here, particularly among African Americans. Climate change is directly affecting more regions, a grim preview of its disastrous potential for vulnerable front-line communities.
Which means there are too many people primed for a national movement for it to wait any longer. We need only open ourselves to communicating, networking, and organizing with each other. If a presidential campaign, even for some old white dude, is a good enough reason to do that, so be it. Its not about him, its about us.
Connecting with Existing Justice Movements
This needs to be, and is, more than a campaign for president. There are children in cages. Open forms of violent hate are abound. The president is openly racist, anti-semetic, and sexist. The architect of american immigration policy is a white supremacist. And all of these forms of violence and exclusion are not rooted in something that started with the 45th president. They are forms that historic struggles for justice have fought for generations and thereby shaped this country. 45 didn't create white supremacy, misogyny, and trans phobia; they created him. And those systems of oppression, exclusion, and violence are hundreds of years old. So connecting with the justice movements that have already been engaged in resistance is the best way of resisting the current manifestations of white supremacy, patriarchy, cis-privilege, and so on.
This movement needs to draw on the proven potential for political revolutions to re-shape the the political future and agenda in this country based on the demands of aggrieved communities. Which mean collaboration, not competition, with existing social justice movements in this country.
Fragmented Media
The sharability and networking capabilities inherent to social media mean that -- in a sense -- Bernie is immune to media blackouts and other ways of diminishing the reported success of his campaign. Major networks can not cover him all they want, shares will always 'out-flank' the top-down approach to silencing his movement.
In fact, Ryan Grim has made an powerful argument recently for why this is helping because it keeps Bernie's campaign out of the traditional wax and wane patterns in primaries. In other words, media attention causes scrutiny that invariably stalls a candidates upward mobility. I agree and would take it steps further:
  1. Bernie's blackout reveals to voters that there is something to be silenced. If the blackout is becoming so laughably evident, voters begin asking well what is so tempting about him that powerful decision makers wouldn't want me to know about him? Voters know who he is, so the blackout can't harm his name recognition.
  2. News sources will start breaking rank because the temptation be the only papenetwork genuinely covering his 'surprisingly' successful campaign is going to become too great. The LA Times recently noted the blackout in a first indicator of outlets starting to act like there's an elephant in the room who may be the next president. (Since I wrote this part, its basically started happening so yeah). Media outlets participating in the "Bernie blackout" now look a little silly.
  3. An ad from a stranger is not as compelling as friend's post. Take this study for example. While big-money can go to great lengths to make ads and target them with Orewllian efficiency, the bottom line is that people trust other people more than they computer screens. Even though they interact with other humans mostly through those screens. So if you convinced you uncle who voted for our current president to vote for Bernie and he's tweeting about it now, a lot of his followers are giving Bernie more serious consideration than they would have just seeing an ad. There is a form of authenticity that goes along with real-people sharing stories on social media. A way to network and understand sentiment that cannot be faked or bought.
Brands vs. Movements
Perhaps the reason why he's being underestimated is that the theoretical cookie cutters being applied are from political science instead of social movement theory. Traditional campaigns build brands (with some human marketing components). Bernie is building a movement. If 100 people knock on doors this weekend and find 100 more people who will knock on more doors (or text/phone bank), then momentum will continue to grow. Hence the reason Bernie keeps rising in polls despite the media blackout, despite a health problem, and despite not really saying brand-new things other than the same stuff he's been saying for his whole political career. Brands languish when they run out of marketing tactics and messages. Movements pick-up momentum because more people are involved as solidarity among affected groups spreads.
Throwing money at a branding effort associated with a politician will produce diminishing returns.
For a movement, message is momentum and the truth is loud. So the traditional laws of election inertia don't apply.
Sharing Stories Matters
Money cannot buy this movement's greatest strength which is solidarity.
The inundation of voters with media mean that there is no shortage of commercials, facebook ads, radio spots, etc. At no point during the 2020 election will the average voter lament not seeing enough ads about the candidates to make a decision. The Kerry and Gore presidential campaigns are good historical examples of what happens when 90's-style "win the moderates/independents" method results in plastic, focus-group generated candidacies with no substance.
The authenticity of this movement's ability to share stories matters:
  1. Bernie himself is authentic. He doesn't fix his hair. He isn't robotic, he's openly pissed about a lot of things. He's real, and even supporters of other candidates have to acknowledge that. He is not a plastic candidate and his positions have been consistent for the better part of a century.
  2. His campaign tactics cut through the banal hum of constant digital media bombardment. Having a face-to-face conversation with someone trumps hundreds of hours of tv ads. Some texts shared back and forth matter more than some well-targeted promotion on fb for Bloomberg. A phone call matters more than a CNN story that asserts Bernie is a longshot. Especially given the statistical prevalence of economic and social injustice (noted above). Many people go through their day without more than 1 or 2 conversations with someone, especially one where someone asked what mattered to them. Those points of contact do more meaningful work to create change (and affect the electorate) than advertising (especially if that ad is for a candidate that is clearly full of shit).Here's a fun way to think about this: Every door you knock on, you stand a good chance of deflecting $10k's in advertising aimed at that household, especially in early primary states. The ads are noise, you're a person who connected with them about a shared struggle. So picture the piles of Koch cash burning every time you ring a door bell or push send. Because their lies cannot break your connection with that individual.
  3. Bernie's not just winning more votes, he's creating more supporters. His campaign isn't only making more voters, its making more activists. His numbers keep going up because there are more and more people working for the movement every day. Democracy is about participation beyond voting. And beyond an ouster of 45, America needs a re-invigoration of its own sense of political life. We need to re-invent 21st century political participation in a way that is more immune to the toxic and deceptive potentials of strictly virtual interaction. Bernie can catalyze that movement.
influence of public thinkers on social media
"Celebrity endorsements" is a very shallow way to understand the importance of Killer Mike supporting Bernie Sanders. It isn't only that people who like an artist will know that they like Bernie so they'll like him too. Its also that media's evolution has made it more possible that ever to find like-minded people through podcasts, social media, etc. And that like-mindedness can achieve new depths to greater numbers through varied forms of interaction.
Bernie getting a bump after the Joe Rogan interview was no accident. It was because of an accessibility of Bernie's message to a varied set of listeners, connected to Rogan's podcast maybe because they liked MMA or maybe because they liked his DMT doc so they started listening however long ago. But whichever way, they were willing to listen to Bernie (better than they would listen to an ad) because an expressive opinion they respected was also willing to listen. Danny DeVito's support matters. This kind of thing matters. Pussy Riot's endorsement is important in helping define Bernie's stance in the world against dictatorial regimes like Vladimir Putin's.
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement is a another good example of how an endorsement can mean more than a rubber stamp but actually influence voters (and quickly at that).
Surprising shifts in support can be triggered by public figures/podcasters/broadcasters/social media presences because a deeper form of identification that can be achieved through constancy/frequency of message dissemination that happens on various platforms. Musicians have always been famous but now they connect with their fans everyday about whatever is on their minds.
I could write a lot more about this and might later but I think the Sanders campaign should more openly start sitting-down with public figures that have strong social media presences and ask them what is important to them in the next election. Musicians, performers, podcasters, artists, twitch streamers, youtubers -- political revolutions are always accompanied by cultural and artistic ones. So I think it makes sense to fan that flame by connecting with those that create culture, regardless of its medium or form. Musicians and actors; yes (I remember a comment someone made about having a music festival over the Summer, I think that's brilliant and could help him win). But also gamers and designers. What if Bernie had a cup of coffee with Hideo Kojima? Where could that go?
Social media has changed more than the ability to target ads, it also fosters forms of human connection that people identify with intensely, in ways that can't be purchased. So there is cascade-potential for movements within those connections.
Conclusion
I am writing this to openly address doubt. That despite all our energy, there is a voice in the back of all of our minds saying this is a hope against hope; that we are participating so we can say we did the right thing. That the tsunami of billions that will be spent attempting to prevent a Sanders presidency is simply too much. That he is more of a good idea than a president. That he can't really win. But we're gonna try.
The time has come to forget those doubts. They are no longer useful or accurate. Bernie is the front runner because he is pushed forward by a movement whose purpose is a response to the greatest kairotic moment of our time. America's working class people are responding to the call to breathe life back into democracy and hope back into the future, here and around the world. We are proving that we can succeed in the face of opposition. The hardest parts of the campaign are yet to come. So now is the time to squash any lingering doubt about structural or funding-driven issues dooming the Sanders campaign to failure. Its simple: we donate and work, he wins. Nothing is out of reach now. No bullshit.
So donate. Volunteer. Share your stories. And build solidarity. If you're on the fence about going to an early primary state to canvass, do it. You want to be a part of this great thing that is happening, to say that you were there when things changed. That you helped.
The way presidents get elected is changing moment to moment as Bernie gains momentum. All presidential elections will be different after this campaign. And the world will be different too.
Because Bernie Sanders is going to be the next President of the United States.
submitted by AgilePossible to SandersForPresident [link] [comments]


2019.12.27 14:36 dubyahhh Effortpost on Urban vs Rural Financial Support from Democratic vs Republican Governments

Introduction

I wanted to write this to dispel the notion that Democrats are supportive of Urban areas, while Republicans stand up for Rural areas. Growing up in Rural NY I was always told the The City siphoned off all of our tax dollars, and believed this for probably about twenty years or so. It's not true, but it goes to show the kind of misinformation (see: lies) that people will believe to "defend" their homes.
My simple premise for writing this is essentially that both parties, when in charge, will spend more on Rural areas than Urban areas - not because they think Rurals are better or more important, but because they simply have to.

Background Information

To get started let's look at my particular state: New York. Looking at statewide demographics we have about 20 million folks living here. Around 8 million (40%) live within the five boroughs of New York City, around 4 million (20%) live in the surrounding suburban counties of Rockland, Westchester, Nassau, etc, and the rest of us (40%) live "Upstate".
You would think that would lead to a somewhat swingy state as far as politics are concerned, but Upstate has several cities too. Buffalo and Rochester are around 1m, Syracuse and Albany are around 250k. All in all it leads to a pretty blue state overall, regardless of what the Rural areas are up to. For the sake of this post you can assume Upstate is 40% of the population and red, and Downstate is 60% of the population and blue.
Anyway, I think that to understand the legislative habits of each party you need to understand the demographics, so that was that. To plug myself some, here is my last effortpost about gerrymandering within New York State. Basically, on a state level it's almost 100% R upstate and 100% D downstate. Not exactly, but that's a good rule of thumb if you're trying to picture the electoral map. Seeing as 60% of the population is downstate, this has led to Democrats controlling about 60% of our State Senate and State Assembly and the governorship.

ACTUAL POST

So with that out of the way, let's look at some actual funding.

Democratic States

First we can look at New York, with this 2011 report from the Rockefeller Institute. This is a great resource and analysis of taxation and spending within New York State. A bit of an older example, but the numbers they've used are from a budget passed through a Democratic trifecta. The entire report can most easily be summed up with these two tables I've pulled:
Region Population Taxes Per Capita Spending Per Capita
Capitol Region 817,538 $3,326 $6,934
New York City 8,350,570 $3,915 $3,881
Downstate Suburbs 4,223,948 $4,711 $3,400
Rest of State 4,632,717 $2,843 $4,702
I think this is more easily understood with this table, however:
Region % of State Population % of State Taxes % of State Spending
Capitol Region 4.2% 3.8% 7.0%
New York City 42.9% 45.1% 40.0%
Downstate Suburbs 21.7% 27.4% 17.7%
Rest of State 31.2% 23.8% 35.2%
This makes it pretty easy to see who the winners and losers are in this exchange - the Capitol Region and the rest of Upstate benefit massively, New York City is mostly even but still pays out billions, and the Downstate suburbs are the big losers.

Republican States

That's in New York, but we can look at a state with a (near) Republican trifecta. Here's a summary of a study done in 2009 in Indiana. To sum it up again with a chart:
Type of Area % of State Population % of State Taxes % of State Spending
Metropolitan 77.7% 82.5% 72.7%
Rural 22.3% 17.5% 27.3%
Only Indianapolis 29.5% 33.5% 28.0%
The biggest difference here in my opinion is the tax levels of the states. Here's a table of taxes levied by each state, where if you do the math you find that New Yorkers paid about $3,650 per person in 2012, while Hoosiers (meme state amirite?) paid about $2,400. So there is more money funneled into New York's Rural areas than Indiana's, even if the proportions of taxes paid and spending received aren't that far from each other.

Additional Research

As a different sort of comparison, we can look at Federal SNAP spending by location. Here is a study with some nice breakdowns of where SNAP money is spent. Here's the simplest table to pull from it:
Type of Area % of Population Receiving SNAP Benefits
America 11.4%
Metropolitan 10.9%
Micropolitan 13.8%
Rural 14.6%
In other words, the Federal Government also spends more money on Rural areas. This makes sense, given Rural areas are generally poorer than Urban areas and that's how Federal spending is distributed in most cases.

Summary

The premise that Republicans take better care of or secure more funding for Rural areas than Democrats would is not true. Proportionally, each party spends about the same amount of their budgets on Rural areas because they have to to maintain the infrastructure, education, farms, etc. However, Democrat controlled states tend to have higher taxes and thus distribute more money overall to Rural areas.
So what's the lesson here? Overall Urbans make, Rurals take. Sometimes this can be extreme, sometimes it's hardly pronounced. But the next time someone says "The City is bleeding us dry out here", you can tell them they're full of shit. But probably in a nicer way, though.
submitted by dubyahhh to neoliberal [link] [comments]


2019.11.16 23:50 SuperSans [OC] It's silly season, so I wrote a silly ProRel Simulator

US Soccer ProRel Simulator

Greetings, and welcome to the US Soccer ProRel Simulator. Since it's the start of the silly season, I wanted to make a silly post containing what I like to call the ProRel simulator, a quick script I wrote that uses old standings data from MLS and lower divisions.
The script swaps "futures" of teams to "predict" what today's soccer climate would look like if we had promotion-relegation in the US Soccer system. This post is meant solely for giggles and bait for those who can't resist the temptation.

How It Works

When clubs are promoted/relegated, they "swap futures", meaning that they just assume the position the other team had in the next league. This has some interesting side effects, such as relegated teams folding immediately (pretty realistic!).
Additionally, I took some liberties as to what defines "D2", i.e. USL from 2010-2017. If there were two "D2" leagues in the same year, I merged them together and based standings off of their per-game stats.

The Rules

  1. The US Soccer Pyramid starts in 1996.
  2. MLS is the only D1 league.
  3. 3 clubs are promoted or relegated each season.
  4. Reserve sides cannot be promoted.
  5. Teams can "buy into" the first division (aka expansion teams that did not earn promotion), since this is America after all.
  6. Relocated teams, such as San Jose to Houston, are not considered the same club.
  7. Clubs are based on an ID, not a name, so renamed clubs are considered in the simulator. I actually learned a lot while tracking down historic names!

Division 2

1996 - Merged A-League/USISL 1997-2004 - A-League 2005-2009 - USL 2010 - Merged USSF D2/USL Div 2 2011-2017 - Merged NASL/USL 2018 - USL

Getting Started - 1996

1996 MLS Standings
  1. Tampa Bay Mutiny
  2. Los Angeles Galaxy
  3. D.C. United
  4. Dallas Burn
  5. Kansas City Wizards
  6. MetroStars
  7. San Jose Clash
  8. Columbus Crew
  9. New England Revolution
  10. Colorado Rapids
Relegated:
1996 Division 2 Standings
  1. Carolina Dynamo
  2. Montreal Impact
  3. South Carolina Shamrocks
  4. California Jaguars
  5. Long Island Rough Riders
  6. Milwaukee Rampage
  7. Hampton Roads Mariners
  8. Minnesota Thunder
  9. Colorado Foxes
  10. Sacramento Scorpions
  11. Richmond Kickers
  12. Tampa Bay Cyclones
  13. El Paso Patriots
  14. New Mexico Chiles
  15. Seattle Sounders
  16. Connecticut Wolves
  17. Rochester Rhinos
  18. New Orleans Riverboat Gamblers
  19. Vancouver 86ers
  20. Raleigh Flyers
  21. Ohio Xoggz
  22. Delaware Wizards
  23. New York Fever
  24. Chicago Stingers
  25. Cape Cod Crusaders
  26. Reno Rattlers
  27. Atlanta Ruckus
  28. New York/New Jersey Stallions
Promoted:
Notes:

1997-2018

I'd love to go into detail season by season, but that post would be ridiculously long. If you want to explore each season yourself, check out this spreadsheet of all seasons

2019

After all the dust has settled, here's the final result. There are many fascinating members of MLS, such as New York Cosmos, Chivas USA, and Puerto Rico FC. Division 2 features some funny occurrences, such as NYRB II over NYRB, as well as LAG, SKC, and many other top flight teams in the second division. Why don't see your club in 2019? I think you already know the answer...

Fun Narratives

List of Champions

1996 - Tampa Bay Mutiny 1997 - D.C. United 1998 - Los Angeles Galaxy 1999 - D.C. United 2000 - Kansas City Wizards 2001 - Miami Fusion 2002 - Los Angeles Galaxy 2003 - Chicago Fire 2004 - Milwaukee Wave United 2005 - Charleston Battery 2006 - D.C. United 2007 - D.C. United 2008 - Charleston Battery 2009 - Charleston Battery 2010 - Toronto FC 2011 - Toronto FC 2012 - Carolina RailHawks 2013 - Rochester Rhinos 2014 - Montreal Impact 2015 - Rochester Rhinos 2016 - Portland Timbers 2017 - New York Cosmos 2018 - Rochester Rhinos 2019 - Los Angeles Football Club
This was done out of jest, so don't take it too seriously. If you want access to raw data to have your own fun, check it out here. Enjoy!
submitted by SuperSans to MLS [link] [comments]


2019.11.11 21:00 DangerDylan [Monday, 11. November]

World News

Hong Kong protester shot with live round during early morning clashes
Comments Link
Trump now says he “hardly” knows Sondland, whom he appointed as EU ambassador, despite ordering Sondland to extort the Ukrainian government into investigating Biden and previously praising him as a “great American.”
Comments Link
Evo Morales Resigns From Bolivian Presidency
Comments Link

All news, US and international.

‘It’s Mutilation’: The Police in Chile Are Blinding Protesters - Video
Comments Link
Marijuana banned from Chicago public housing despite legalization taking effect January
Comments Link
BART riders hold lunchtime 'eat-in' protest after man detained for eating sandwich on platform
Comments Link

Science

Any amount of running, even just once a week, is better than no running, in lowering risk of death from all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer, finds a new study (n=232,149), which also found that higher doses of running may not necessarily be associated with greater mortality benefits.
Comments Link
Copper hospital beds may kill bacteria, suggests new study, which found that copper beds in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) harbored an average of 95% fewer bacteria than conventional hospital beds with plastic surfaces, most of which had concentrations of bacteria that exceed levels considered safe.
Comments Link
North America is lagging behind other continents when it comes to understanding the potential risks that microplastics and associated pollutants pose to both fisheries and the humans that consume the seafood.
Comments Link

/Technology

Renewables meet 50% of electricity demand on Australia's power grid for first time. For a brief moment solar, wind and hydro combined to deliver more than half the power into the National Electricity Market
Comments Link
Companies from Microsoft to Shake Shack have experimented with a shorter, 4-day workweek — and most of the time it's worked really well
Comments Link
YouTube says it can delete your account if you’re not 'commercially viable.'
Comments Link

Sadly, this is not the Onion.

Dog poo painter told to 'cease and desist' by owner
Comments Link

Ask Reddit...

Which book should a depressed person absolutely have to read?
Comments
How do you feel about a 4 day work week?
Comments
Anyone who has slept with a Pornstar off camera, what was the experience like?
Comments

Sysadmin

Is it normal to have this much anxiety and dread about going to work tomorrow?
Comments
Losing Interest and FAST
Comments
PSA Major Google Cloud service issues at the moment
Comments

Microsoft SQL Server

State of the SQL Server tools - SQL Server Blog
Comments Link
Visual Studio Code for development work
Comments
VPN and SQL Server, user cannot connect
Comments

PowerShell

Trying to move out of helpdesk
Comments
Is there something like code academy for learning powershell?
Comments
Ways of speeding up PowerShell when working with Excel
Comments

Functional 3D Printing

Travel holder for glass tonic bottles
Comments Link
Headphone Stand that clips to my cubicle wall
Comments Link
Girlfriend wanted a way to hang her makeup wipes to dry
Comments Link

Data Is Beautiful

Effects of title length [OC]
Comments Link
Ranking of the top 10 most populous US cities from 1890 to 2010. [OC]
Comments Link
TOP 10 most immigrated to countries in the world. [OC]
Comments Link

Today I Learned (TIL)

TIL: Comedian/Actor Joel McHale took an Uber from Rochester, NY to Manhattan. His flight out was canceled and needed to get to his appearance on Jimmy Fallon, so he spent $700 on a (350 mile, 5-6 hour) Uber ride and paid $200 in tips, as well as paid the driver additional money for his gas back.
Comments Link
TIL that Glenn K. Tripp, a D.B Cooper copycat, hijacked a plane for a $600k ransom. He had his drink spiked with Valium by a flight attendant, and after a 10 hour standoff, lowered his ransom to 3 cheeseburgers and a head start on a getaway.
Comments Link
TIL, at her request, Elizabeth Taylor's funeral was delayed 15 minutes. So people would be able to say about her, "She was even late for her own funeral".
Comments Link

So many books, so little time

Ender’s Game by Orson Scott Card
Comments
My life without Pratchett, or how I failed to stop worrying and love the books.
Comments
Winston Smith in 1984 is one of the best, most realistic protagonists I've come across.
Comments

OldSchoolCool: History's cool kids, looking fantastic

Rare picture of Marvin before his accident back in 1994
Comments Link
My great-great aunt. around 1900 or slightly earlier.
Comments Link
[Circa 1955] Betty White has had the longest television career of any female entertainer, spanning 80 years, she has received numerous awards, including eight Emmy Awards, three SAG Awards, and a Grammy. Happy Birthday, Betty!!
Comments Link

aviation

Thought this would fit in this sub. Taken the other day on an air-to-air flight. Taken on 35mm film.
Comments Link
Parallel landing at SFO of an ERJ 170 and a B777! ✈️
Comments Link
Flew my first solo today!
Comments Link

Reddit Pics

Five months in, not stepping back
Comments Link
Man "bun"
Comments Link
Right now, in Hong Kong, police is pointing guns to citizens everywhere.
Comments Link

.gifs - funny, animated gifs for your viewing pleasure

At least you tried
Comments Link
I took the gif of the bird landing on the person's hand and turned it into a movie production intro
Comments Link
One floof, two floof, three floof, four
Comments Link

A subreddit for cute and cuddly pictures

Caught the Goldens holding hands at puppy play hour
Comments Link
Good boy gets the happy hops when his human comes home
Comments Link
This is bullshit
Comments Link
submitted by DangerDylan to DangerDylanTLDR [link] [comments]


2019.09.07 13:54 assessment_bot [ Non-Fatal ] [ 08/27/2019 ] Beech 35, Monroe/ WI

On August 27, 2019, about 1200 central daylight time, a Beech V35 Bonanza airplane, N6245V, experienced a total loss of engine power in cruise flight and made a forced landing in a field near Monroe Municipal Airport (EFT), Monroe, Wisconsin. The private pilot sustained minor injuries and the passenger sustained serious injuries. The airplane sustained substantial damage. The airplane was registered to and operated by the pilot under the provisions of Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 as a personal flight. Visual meteorological conditions prevailed at the time of the accident and the flight was operated on a visual flight rules (VFR) flight plan. The flight departed Rochester International Airport (RST), Rochester, Minnesota, and was en route to Chicago Midway International Airport (MDW), Chicago, Illinois.
After the accident, the pilot stated that while in cruise flight the oil pressure decreased to 5 psi and the engine failed suddenly. The pilot diverted toward EFT and was unable to make the airport so he made a forced landing to a mature corn field (figure 1).
The responding Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) inspector completed a preliminary examination of the wreckage and reported that there was no sign of an oil leak or any oil streaking on the cowling. There was a large hole on the top of the engine crankcase and a significant amount of metallic debris inside the case.
The wreckage was retained for further examination.
Category Data Category Data Category Data
Event Id: 20190827X51852 Investigation Type: Accident Accident Number: CEN19LA290
Event Date: 08/27/2019 Location: Monroe, WI Country: United States
Latitude: 42.663056 Longitude: -89.529723 Airport Code: EFT
Airport Name: Monroe Muni Injury Severity: Non-Fatal Aircraft Damage: Substantial
Aircraft Category: Airplane Registration Number: N6245V Make: Beech
Model: 35 Amateur Built: Yes Number of Engines: 1
Engine Type: Reciprocating FAR Description: Part 91: General Aviation Schedule:
Purpose of Flight: Personal Air Carrier: Total Fatal Injuries:
Total Serious Injuries: 1 Total Minor Injuries: 1 Total Uninjured:
Weather Condition: Broad Phase of Flight: CRUISE Report Status: Preliminary
Publication Date: 09/04/2019
http://www.ntsb.gov/_layouts/ntsb.aviation/brief.aspx?ev_id=20190827X51852
submitted by assessment_bot to NTSB_database [link] [comments]


2019.09.06 04:00 RIT_EMBA Audiologist and Hearing Provider Survey

Hello,
We are currently enrolled in an Executive MBA program at the Rochester Institute of Technology and are looking into potential drying solutions for hearing aids and other hearables. We are working on identifying the market for this type of product. In order to gather data on this subject, please consider spending 4 minutes to take our survey’s! The links to the surveys are below. We truly appreciate your assistance and participation!!
1) https://rit.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_4ShQjaMi74eOog5
2) https://rit.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_3kEnWgqovZDRGpT
submitted by RIT_EMBA to medical [link] [comments]


2019.09.06 03:37 RIT_EMBA Audiologist and Hearing Provider Survey

Hello,
We are currently enrolled in an Executive MBA program at the Rochester Institute of Technology and are looking into potential drying solutions for hearing aids and other hearables. We are working on identifying the market for this type of product. In order to gather data on this subject, please consider spending 4 minutes to take our survey’s! The links to the surveys are below. We truly appreciate your assistance and participation!!

1) https://rit.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_4ShQjaMi74eOog5

2) https://rit.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_3kEnWgqovZDRGpT
submitted by RIT_EMBA to hearing [link] [comments]


2019.09.06 03:23 RIT_EMBA Audiologist and Hearing Provider Survey

Hello,
We are currently enrolled in an Executive MBA program at the Rochester Institute of Technology and are looking into potential drying solutions for hearing aids and other hearables. We are working on identifying the market for this type of product. In order to gather data on this subject, please consider spending 4 minutes to take our survey’s! The links to the surveys are below. We truly appreciate your assistance and participation!!

1) https://rit.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_4ShQjaMi74eOog5

2) https://rit.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_3kEnWgqovZDRGpT

Thank you!
submitted by RIT_EMBA to audiology [link] [comments]


2019.08.23 15:04 Wuz314159 Inter-city transport options for the 5th largest city in each state:

We all think about the big cities, but the smaller cities need transit connections too.
The 5th largest city in each state is shown, sorted by population.
Many are "suburbs" of much larger cities. For those metro areas, I did not include specific data.
Some cities like Provo & Newport News, VA are sister cities. They may share airports and local transit networks. Newport News has an airport & so does Norfolk.
Some cities (denoted with *) are within 20 miles of a larger city and so share some resources.
Clarksville, TN is 50 miles from Nashville. Too far for me to combine data, even though they claim it.
Tuscaloosa's airport is apparently big for sporting events. No fixed-routes.
--
Airport shows the number of airlines servicing the airport.
Train Station is rail service provided by Amtrak in the city. Regional rail is specified.
Bus Depot is an inter-city bus transit centre. (Greyhound, etc.) Smyrna, DE & Rochester, NH are serviced by regional / local transit connecting them to other cities. Rock Hill, SC is a far flung suburb of Charlotte, NC & is serviced by their local transit.
Seaport is, well, Ketchikan, AK is an island. Passenger service only. No sea cargo was logged.
Two cities have no inter-city transit options. Reading, PA & Auburn, ME.
https://preview.redd.it/xrtmbyj3d7i31.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e7fedd50ed02e18bb8cbf7ba82136917a9de5e4
Feel free to check my data.
Edit: Fixed a formatting issue
submitted by Wuz314159 to transit [link] [comments]


2019.07.30 16:02 bayesleaf What you don't know can hurt you: Uncertainty, FTA renegotiation, and crises

There has been a lot of recent discussion about free trade and the advantages we give other countries through free trade agreements, or FTAs, in the news. In particular, I was inspired to write this after reading Warren’s trade policy plan. From my surface level read of econtwitter, it seems like many people who like economics also like Warren’s economic proposals and support her candidacy. I like a lot of them as well. But, if you care about trade, this recent release should deeply concern you.
An initial read might suggest that while critical of trade, this plan is more of a careful re-evaluation of the pre-Trump pro-Trade consensus and not a radical shift. (EDIT: for example, this Matty Yglesias tweet) I’ll contend that, if enacted, this plan would greatly diminish the utility of existing US FTAs and magnify any subsequent shocks to trade flows beyond what occurred in 2008. I don’t want to get into the benefits or costs to trade itself, since this has already been hashed out many times on this sub, so I'll this is written assuming that increased trade enables specialization that in the aggregate benefits everyone, and that measures such as TAA can sufficiently correct for any distributional effects.
For reference, here’s a link to her plan, if you haven’t seen it.
I want to also acknowledge that some of the concerns that Warren identifies here are valid. Working through the WTO to address them offers a secure process that could maintain certainty while gradually pushing for better standards abroad. Warren even suggests just that near the very end of this article, calling for a "non-sustainable economy” designation that allows harsher penalties. And, it’s not wrong to be skeptical about corporate interests/rent-seeking forces in FTAs — Dani Rodrik sums up the best case against them here. But the plan goes too far in effectively barring FTAs with many countries and scuttling existing ones.
I'll first explain how her plan would impact existing FTAs and the negotiation of future ones. Warren lays out 9 criteria for even starting the negotiation process for a free trade agreement with the US. It’s worth quoting them in full, since they’re pretty detailed:
Recognize and enforce the core labor rights of the International Labour Organization, like collective bargaining and the elimination of child labor.
Uphold internationally recognized human rights, as reported in the Department of State’s Country Reports on Human Rights, including the rights of indigenous people, migrant workers, and other vulnerable groups.
Recognize and enforce religious freedom as reported in the State Department’s Country Reports.
Comply with minimum standards of the Trafficking Victims Protection Act.
Be a party to the Paris Climate agreement and have a national plan that has been independently verified to put the country on track to reduce its emissions consistent with the long-term emissions goals in that agreement.
Eliminate all domestic fossil fuel subsidies.
Ratify the Convention on Combating Bribery of Foreign Public Officials in International Business Transactions.
Comply with any tax treaty they have with the United States and participate in the OECD’s Base Erosion and Profit Shifting project to combat tax evasion and avoidance.
Not appear on the Department of Treasury monitoring list of countries that merit attention for their currency practices.
As she notes, the US doesn't even meet these standards! Some of these are ridiculously stringent: for instance, the Department of Treasury monitoring list includes China, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, and Switzerland. These are all major trading partners with the US (and Korea has a current FTA, KORUS), so we’re already counting them out.
Let’s get specific: the US currently has 20 different FTA partners. Here’s a quick matrix of all of them and their compliance with some of the above conditions.
I only reviewed the ones that were easy to check on: e.g. having a "national plan that has been independently verified to put the country on track to reduce its emissions consistent with ... long-term emissions goals” didn’t have a easy database to check, but I can’t imagine most countries would do great on that either. When it wasn’t clear, I put an “M”. As you can see, nearly every country the US currently has an FTA with would have to terminated, and most countries have multiple "dealbreaker" issues -- and these are only the easy to define thresholds. That's not even counting the FTAs that will never get made because of these restrictions!
(State department reports are here, Trafficking Victims Protection Act here, subsidies data here)
It doesn’t end there, she continues:
I will ensure trade agreements protect Buy American and other programs designed to develop local industry, contain strong rule-of-origin standards to promote domestic manufacturing … our trade pacts will require imported food to meet domestic food safety standards, including enhanced border inspection requirements.
These are called technical barriers to trade, and are significant problems for existing FTAs and depress their usefulness significantly (e.g. see this paper about Japan’s problems with them).
We’re not even getting into the other restrictions in this report, which contains stuff about climate regulation, antitrust, and agriculture that I don’t want to get into in too much detail. Suffice to say that these would also diminish future FTA prospects and make the forced renegotiation of existing ones even more difficult.
Why should we care? Worldwide, the importance of FTAs are growing as the WTO remains in a deadlock over the DSB and its membership begins to diminish in importance (see: US-China trade war).
In such uncertain economic times, companies turn to FTAs. Why? Simply put, firms need to make long term investment decisions highly dependent on future tariff expectations, which makes uncertainty very dangerous. The best example of this can be seen China’s entry into the WTO. Research about this event often focuses on a “China Shock” after their accession (notably this David Autor paper). Such research seems to imply that the US simply cut China a great deal and lowered tariffs after they entered the WTO, enabling their rise. The truth is that the US was giving China MFN rates for years prior to their accession. In fact, evidence suggests that the majority of the “China Shock” can be attributed to an increase in certainty for companies which made them able to make more long term investments and develop robust international supply chains (Handley and Limao 2017a). So too when it comes to trade wars, the threat of tariffs is dangerous enough on its own: it depresses trade even when said tariffs are not enacted (Crowley et. al 2016, Handley and Limao 2017b).
A great way to apply this logic to FTAs is to look at periods of recession, where barriers to trade increase (Bown and Cowley 2013). The fact alone that much of the Great Trade Collapse following 2008 was in goods that require larger sunk costs, primarily durables should be fairly suggestive of such an effect (approx 60 percent of the collapse can be explained this way, according to Eaton 2016). And theoretical models such as Novy (2014) show that incorporating uncertainty best explains empirical shocks.
But, we have even better evidence of this: a recent NBER paper, Carballo et. al (2018), uses firm level data during the recession to find that "U.S. exports to non-preferential markets would have been 6.5% higher under an agreement—equivalent to an 8% foreign GDP increase” (Some great graphs in this Vox EU article here). They also create a slick model for this that you should check out if you’re interested, but isn’t necessary to go into here. Using a direct, news-based index of policy uncertainty yields a similar result.
Consider the same shock under a regime that both had a much less secure multilateral trading regime than in 2008 and was in the process of or had threatened to renegotiate nearly all existing FTAs. Not only would this place a massive chilling effect on foreign investment (even absent a recession), but companies currently exporting to these countries would jump ship at the fist sign of future losses and pull out of existing cross-border ties, further disentangling global flows. Past a certain critical mass, we could see a much greater version of the collapse in trade in 2008 — especially if the President took the opportunity to actually go through with such renegotiation and tariff plans.
Folding in what might be valid skepticism about things like Investor-State dispute settlement with demands that all current and future FTAs meet overly stringent criteria for consideration is foolish. FTAs are a vital tool for the US to streamline terms of trade and credibly commit to giving countries protections that enable companies to take advantage of global supply chains. For them to work, they require high levels of certainty. A plan to renegotiate them all and block the creation of future ones will place global trade on the chopping block, and the next recession will bring down the hammer.
Thanks for reading this! I had fun writing this -- first R1, so don't roast me too hard for it. Interested to know people's thoughts about this, especially people who were semi-sold on Warren prior to this but now may be changing their minds (like me).
Parenthetically cited sources:
Ando, Mitsuyo and Shujiro Urata (2018). “Determinants of FTA Utilization for Japan’s Imports: Preferential margins and restrictiveness of rules of origin”. In: The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry. RIETI Discussion Paper Series 18-E-078.
Bown, Chad P and Meredith A Crowley (2013). “Self-Enforcing Trade Agreements: Evidence from Time-Varying Trade Policy”. en. In: American Economic Review 103.2, pp. 1071–1090. ISSN: 0002-8282. DOI: 10.1257/aer. 103.2.1071. URL: http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.103.2.1071
Carballo, Jeronimo, Kyle Handley, and Nuno Limmo (2018). “Economic and Policy Uncertainty: Export Dynamics and the Value of Agreements”. en. In: SSRN Electronic Journal. ISSN: 1556-5068. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3199943. URL: https://www.ssrn.com/abstract=3199943
Crowley, Meredith, Ning Meng, and Huasheng Song (2018). “Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms”. en. In: Journal of International Economics 114, pp. 96–115. ISSN: 00221996. DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.05.003. URL: https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/ S002219961830117X
Eaton, Jonathan et al. (2016). “Trade and the Global Recession”. en. In: American Economic Review 106.11, pp. 3401– 3438. ISSN: 0002-8282. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20101557. URL: http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer. 20101557
Handley, Kyle (2014). “Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence”. en. In: Journal of International Economics 94.1, pp. 50–66. ISSN: 00221996. DOI: 10 . 1016 / j . jinteco . 2014 . 05 . 005. URL: https : / / linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S002219961400083X.
Handley, Kyle and Nuno Limão (2015). “Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence”. en. In: American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 7.4, pp. 189–222. ISSN: 1945-7731, 1945-774X. DOI: 10. 1257/pol.20140068. URL: http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pol.20140068.
– (2017a). “Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States”. en. In: American Economic Review 107.9, pp. 2731–2783. ISSN: 0002-8282. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20141419. URL: http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.20141419
– (2017b). “Trade under T.R.U.M.P. policies”. English. In: Economics and policy in the age of Trump. OCLC: 1016072760. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research. ISBN: 9781912179022.
Novy, Dennis and Alan M. Taylor (2014). Trade and Uncertainty. en. SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 2444909. Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network. URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2444909
Rodrik, Dani (2018). “What Do Trade Agreements Really Do?” en. In: Journal of Economic Perspectives 32.2, pp. 73– 90. ISSN: 0895-3309. DOI: 10.1257/jep.32.2.73. URL: https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/jep.32. 2.73
submitted by bayesleaf to badeconomics [link] [comments]